Global Markets Update Bund yields likely to fall further, but rebound next year We expect the yield of 10-year German government bonds to continue to drop this year, as investors factor in the prospect of even looser monetary policy in the euro-zone and demand for safe havens... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil output, Egypt’s constitutional referendum US President Trump’s decision not to extend waivers on Iran’s oil exports means that Saudi Arabia is likely to raise oil production over the coming months. While this poses an upside risk to our GDP... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Apr.) The further rise in Brazilian inflation, to 4.7% y/y in the first half of April, was driven almost entirely by stronger food and fuel inflation. There are signs in the breakdown that inflation has now... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Easing labour shortages will help cut building backlog The sharp fall in lumber prices over the past 10 months has failed to halt the rise in single-family homes which have been authorised, but not started. Labour shortages now appear to be the key... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC brings policy easing on to the agenda The Turkish central bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold at today’s meeting was widely expected, although changes to the accompanying statement suggest that the MPC is starting to consider... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: rates to be left unchanged this year Bank Indonesia (BI) left rates unchanged at 6.0% at its meeting today and there was little indication in the statement that it is likely to adjust monetary policy anytime soon. We expect rates to... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q1) The RICS survey showed no improvement in occupier demand conditions and investment enquires worsening, consistent with the property market slowing further. 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank still too optimistic about repo rate hikes The dovish shift in the Riksbank’s policy stance is a step in the right direction. But with economic growth and core inflation set to remain subdued over the coming years, we still think that... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM currency outlook poor regardless of oil prices Despite the 35% surge in oil prices this year, some of the EM currencies traditionally regarded as “petro-currencies” have hardly risen. That is not all that surprising – the influence of oil prices... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Policy to remain loose for the foreseeable future The Bank of Japan made it very clear that it will keep policy settings loose for at least another year. And while we expect GDP growth and inflation to disappoint, we think that concerns about the... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Higher oil prices not a game changer for Norway We expect that higher oil prices will result in the Norges Bank raising interest rates twice this year and that the krone will outperform its Nordic peers. However, if we are proved correct in our... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Higher oil price adds to headwinds for world economy While we still think that this year’s rise in oil prices will soon go into reverse, we have bumped up our end-year forecast. The now smaller drop in oil prices we’re expecting doesn’t change the... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A surge in net imports and the recovery in domestic production led crude stocks higher last week. However, we expect stocks to start to be drawn down in the coming weeks as the refinery maintenance... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank gives up on future rate hikes By dropping any reference to future rate hikes today, the Bank delivered its most dovish policy signal in two years. While the Bank remains optimistic about economic prospects in the second half of... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Next move still likely to be a cut The Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming policy meeting. Chair Jerome Powell may acknowledge in his post-meeting press conference that downside risks to the outlook are fading. But... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Economic outlook suggests US stock market will falter again 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
