Africa Chart Pack Africa: More bad news across the region Figures released this month added to the evidence that African economies are struggling this year. The worst news was from South Africa and Angola, where recent activity data suggest that GDP actually... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three key points on the latest EM currency “sell-off” The recent sell-off in EM currencies has grabbed the headlines but in truth, aside from the Argentine peso and Turkish lira, the moves have been relatively limited. This Update highlights three key... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Outlook Risk appetite to be the key driver of prices Our forecast that global economic growth will stay lower for longer suggests that the recent revival in industrial metals prices will prove short-lived. However, the prices of gold and silver could... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1) & Unemployment (Mar.) The first estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q1 and the labour market data for March were encouraging. But the timelier survey indicators have continued to weaken, and we expect the global economy to remain... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q1) GDP growth in Taiwan held up surprisingly well last quarter, but we doubt this resilience will last. The breakdown of the figures show that domestic demand weakened further last quarter and that... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Interest rates set to fall The economic outlook has deteriorated in both Australia and New Zealand. In Australia, the downturn in the housing market and falling business confidence should mean that GDP growth will continue to... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland CPI (Apr.) The rise in Polish inflation to an 18-month high of 2.2% y/y in April was driven almost entirely by a pickup in food and fuel inflation. It appears that core inflation remained weak (at 1.5% y/y)... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Apr.) Given the current political impasse, it is reassuring that the GfK/NOP consumer confidence figure held steady again in April. And with the six-month delay to Brexit removing the chance of an imminent... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Supermarkets to outperform the wider retail sector There are no signs that supermarket rental value falls will reverse. But supermarket capital value growth is likely to outpace the wider retail sector in coming years as valuations appear less... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF Economic Barometer (Apr.) The decrease in the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer in April leaves it consistent with subdued quarterly GDP growth this year, in line with our forecast. And we expect the franc to appreciate this year... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update The economic impact of the monsoon The extent of the monsoon rains has a significant impact on the livelihoods of millions of families in India given the high level of employment in agriculture. But at the macro level, the monsoon... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Political risks begin to crystallise The past month has seen political risks in key economies start to crystallise. The rout in Argentine markets, triggered by concerns about the dwindling re-election prospects of President Macri, has... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM currency sell-off not a headwind to growth yet The sell-offs in the Argentine peso and Turkish lira have sparked fears of broader turmoil in EM financial markets. But, so far at least, this has yet to materialise. Sovereign dollar bond spreads... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Why is rental growth accelerating? The acceleration in rental growth to 3.7% y/y in March, a 12-month high, does not reflect tighter rental markets. Instead, and in contrast to what we had expected, the rise in earnings growth to a 10... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Regional GDP growth reaches a trough in Q1 Aggregate GDP growth in Emerging Europe appears to have slowed from 1.9% y/y in Q4 to around 1.3% y/y in Q1. While we don’t anticipate much of a rebound in the coming quarters, it does at least appear... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Politics will soon take the centre stage in European bond markets 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
