Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Apr.) The larger-than-expected rise in Mexican headline inflation in the first half of this month, to 4.4% y/y, coming alongside a jump in core inflation, will temper talk of monetary easing in the coming... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Stuck in the middle lane The six-month delay to Brexit until 31st October 2019 has put the brakes on interest rate hikes and left the economy travelling in the middle lane, with GDP likely to rise by 1.5% this year. But... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Slowest regional growth since 2015 Regional GDP growth is set to slow to its weakest pace since 2015 this year and our forecasts for most countries are below consensus. Weakness in the euro-zone will weigh on the highly-open economies... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Six key questions about Spain’s general election Whatever government is formed after Spain’s general election, we expect it to implement a moderate fiscal tightening, causing economic growth to slow slightly. But Spain should remain one of the euro... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Higher oil price adds to headwinds for world economy While we still think that this year’s rise in oil prices will soon go into reverse, we have bumped up our end-year forecast. The now smaller drop in oil prices we’re expecting doesn’t change the... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Surveys remain consistent with slow growth The Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey showed that firms’ expectations for future sales improved only slightly at the start of the year. The future sales balance is still consistent with annual... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Mar.) Another fall in the budget deficit to just 1.2% of GDP in 2018/19 puts the public finances on a sustainable footing and gives the Chancellor room to provide a “deal dividend” if there is a Brexit deal... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Apr.) The fall in the Ifo Business Climate Index for April, which was largely due to a decline in the reading for the manufacturing sector to its lowest level since 2012, is further evidence that Germany’s... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian ruble rally likely to fade The Russian ruble has been the best-performing EM currency so far this year, in spite of the threat of tighter US sanctions which caused a premium to open up in February. We think that the ruble rally... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update A higher oil price forecast, but big picture unchanged We retain our long-held view that the price of oil will fall this year owing to weak global growth, further gains in US oil output and a rise in investor risk aversion. However, the scale of recent... 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response FHFA House Prices / New Home Sales (Feb./Mar.) New home sales continued their strong start to the year in March, with an increase in the number of cheaper homes sold helping lift them to a 17-month high. But with the economy slowing, that rate of... 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Poland: Rising inflation won’t prompt interest rate hikes Polish inflation is likely to rise over the coming quarters, but we don’t think that will prompt a policy response. With growth set to slow next year and the ECB likely to relaunch QE, we expect that... 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Democratic primary hints at break from past policies It is still too early to tell who will end up securing the Democratic nomination for the presidential election in 2020, but there is a good chance that the successful candidate will come from the... 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports past the worst, but will remain weak Having stagnated in February, there are tentative signs in the March data that the worst has passed for EM exports. But weakness in the global technology sector, lower commodity prices and soft global... 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Mar.) Inflation in Saudi Arabia remained in negative territory last month and, barring a fresh round of administered price hikes, we expect this to remain the case for much of this year. 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
