Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth weakest in nearly three years in Q1 Economic growth in the emerging world appears to have slowed further in the first quarter of this year, to its weakest pace since Q2 2016. Early indicators suggest that activity picked up at the end... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Housing outlook soft out to 2021 With Brexit delayed, a recovery in transactions and house prices is unlikely this year. But even if a Brexit deal were to be agreed by October, high house prices and rising interest rates will leave... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Core French assets still offer good value A period of low, but stable growth and historically low interest rates will be supportive of demand for French assets over the next few years. While the retail sector is seeing evidence of some re... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Dollar’s rise likely to continue, even if US GDP growth slips back 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Mixed messages from the Riksbank The dovish shift in the Riksbank’s policy stance this week was a step in the right direction, but we still think that policymakers and investors are overestimating the potential for interest rate... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Underlying weakness will keep the Fed cautious There were plenty of positive headlines for the US economy this week, with GDP growth accelerating in the first quarter, durable goods orders surging in March, and the S&P 500 hitting a record high... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What lacklustre global growth means for commodities We have long expected that sluggish global demand will weigh on commodity prices in 2019. That said, recent indicators have led some to suggest that global growth may be bottoming out. But we disagree... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Spanish elections, new oil price forecasts Spain’s economy is performing well in the run-up to Sunday’s general election, but we expect growth there to slow. Meanwhile, although we have revised up our oil price forecasts, energy inflation... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s dovish shift misjudged, Czech signals rate hike The Turkish central bank’s dovish shift yesterday spooked investors and, with a number of flashpoints ahead for the lira, we think that it’s too soon for policymakers to be signalling interest rate... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q1) The 3.2% annualised gain in first-quarter GDP, which was well above the consensus forecast at 2.0%, would seem to make a mockery of claims that the economy is slowing as the fiscal stimulus fades... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenyan growth, Ethiopian reforms, (another) cyclone in Moz. The latest figures show that Kenya’s economy accelerated in 2018, but a worsening drought will cut growth this year. Elsewhere, a second cyclone is hitting Mozambique, dealing another blow to the... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Equities may fall further as recovery underwhelms The less dovish tone of recent comments from the People’s Bank and from Premier Li is the latest sign that policymakers are keen to avoid the sort of debt-financed surge in growth that followed... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank takes a chance on QT For now, the Riksbank is in the peculiar position of trying to ease and tighten policy at the same time. But with economic growth and core inflation set to remain subdued, we expect policy tightening... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Does a change in the BoE Governor matter? While the next Governor of the Bank of England may change lots of things within the Bank, the economic data will remain the biggest driver of monetary policy. And if Labour won the next general... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank signals rate cut is imminent The dovish nature of the Russian central bank’s post-meeting statement has prompted us to bring forward the interest rate cut that we had pencilled in for Q3 to June. Further ahead, we forecast that... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Fall in borrowing, rise in inflation, local elections looming The recent rise in oil prices adds to our view that inflation is likely to be higher over the next couple of years than is widely expected. This only increases the chances that, eventually, the Bank... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
