Global Economics Update What would a Labor victory mean for Australia? Labor has pledged sizeable tax hikes that probably won’t be offset by higher expenditure, which means that fiscal policy will almost certainly be tighter in Australia under a Labor government than... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: market sell-off intensifies election risks The broad-based sell-off in Argentine assets over the past week or so, triggered by growing political risks, has resulted in a sharp tightening of financial conditions, which will weigh on economic... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Mar.) The strength of global steel production in the first quarter looks unsustainable given that we think global economic activity will remain subdued. What’s more, high iron ore prices are undermining... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth edges lower but short-run trough is near Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy weakened further in March. But the slowdown so far this year has been milder than we had anticipated and may be close to bottoming out. We have... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Hard to be positive on Pacific coal A stabilisation of economic growth in China should support the price of Pacific coal in 2019, but in the longer term we expect prices to slide as demand softens and supply increases. 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update An ageing population won’t stop growth in its tracks An ageing population should have dragged down participation in the labour force sharply over the past decade, but falling economic inactivity, particularly amongst women, has meant that the... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (Mar.) While the latest trade data suggest that Indian demand for gold strengthened further in March, China’s imports remained in the doldrums. Despite the fact that both countries’ imports were probably... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Apr.) April’s decline in the euro-zone’s Economic Sentiment Indicator adds to the evidence from other surveys that the economy got off to a slow start to Q2. So even if GDP data for Q1, published tomorrow... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Apr.) April’s set of ESIs suggest that aggregate GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe slowed from 4.0% y/y in Q1 to around 3.5% y/y at the start of Q2. It appears that the weak external environment is... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Election outcome won’t end Spanish outperformance Following this weekend’s election, we suspect that Spain’s next government will tighten fiscal policy slightly, contributing to slower GDP growth over the coming years. But the country still looks set... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What does a Labor victory mean for Australia? Labor has pledged sizeable tax hikes that probably won’t be offset by higher expenditure, which means that fiscal policy will almost certainly be tighter under a Labor government than under the... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Slump in inflation to prompt cut to 1.25% We suspect that the sharp fall in underlying inflation in the first quarter will be enough to prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates to 1.25% on Tuesday 7th May. And given... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Strong US growth fails to impress commodities The prices of commodities mostly fell this week, despite Friday’s data showing stronger-than-expected Q1 growth in the US. Even oil prices ended this week lower. Having initially jumped when the US... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Global trade volumes set to contract again in Q1 After a partial rebound at the start of the year, world trade volumes fell again in February – the fourth drop in six months. They look to have recovered a bit in March, and export orders in parts of... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Poloz in no rush to re-consider rate hikes There was never any doubt that the Bank of Canada would keep policy unchanged when it met earlier this week, although its decision to drop any reference to future interest rate hikes from its policy... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina: pricing political risk, CA now in balance? Argentine markets have stabilised today but, by our estimates, the aggressive sell-off earlier this week has resulted in the political risk premium on dollar bonds widening to around 200bp. We think... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
