Africa Economics Focus Ethiopia’s reforms: Push forward or risk falling back PM Abiy Ahmed’s political and economic reforms have drawn attention to Ethiopia’s huge potential. But the process remains fragile and could easily be reversed. Developing a private sector-led... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Higher oil prices, Korean investment slump Despite the recent rise in oil prices, inflation across the region is likely to remain subdued throughout 2019. We don’t think higher oil prices will stop Asian central banks from raising interest... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK Finance Mortgage Lending (Mar.) March’s surprise rise in mortgage approvals is unlikely to be repeated next month. That said, the fact that lending has held up fairly well in the face of Brexit uncertainty so far, supports our view... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Outlook Calling time on the oil price rally Our forecast of sluggish global growth, further increases in US output and a rise in investor risk aversion suggests that the recent rally in oil prices will prove short-lived. In contrast, we think... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK interest rates lower for longer Recent developments suggest that UK GDP growth will be lower for a bit longer. As such, with interest rates unlikely to rise as quickly, bond yields should put less upward pressure on property yields... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Spain’s economy will slow but continue to outperform Spain’s period of very strong growth has come to an end. Nevertheless, the latest data suggest that in the run-up to this weekend’s election, it is growing at a decent pace. And there still appears to... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly LDP’s election woes The LDP’s recent by-election defeats have generated speculation that the party may do poorly in July’s Upper House election and that the government may delay October’s sales tax hike yet again. But... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf economies starting to slow GDP figures released over the past month showed that the largest Gulf economies recorded strong growth towards the end of last year, but a fresh slowdown has got underway at the start of 2019. This... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rout in Argentine markets to trigger policy response Argentine policymakers are likely to have been spooked by the rout in local markets in recent days, and the experience of the past few weeks suggests that they will be tempted to respond with more... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Manufacturing slump weighing on payroll growth Our model suggests that non-farm payroll employment increased by a more modest 165,000 in April, with the survey-based hiring indicators and the recent contraction in temporary help employment both... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Rental growth to boost Barcelona logistics returns Limited availability and a small pipeline will support further logistics rental growth in Barcelona. As a result, total returns will outperform those of Madrid and be amongst the highest in the euro... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Monetary policy may not be the key driver of DM currencies 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Households happy to spend Some of the surge in retail sales in Q1, which has pushed the three-month-on-three-month growth rate back up to the pace seen before the EU referendum in 2016, might have been due to households... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC unlikely to see the Brexit delay as a reason to hike If the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) wanted to raise interest rates from 0.75%, the six-month Brexit delay provides it with a window to do so. More likely, though, is that the MPC remains in a state... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Mar.) The strong rise in underlying capital goods orders in March, together with stronger retail sales last month, suggests the economy is carrying a bit more momentum into the second quarter. But a drop... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update LME lead prices to fall, but still outperform The price of lead has been lower on the LME than on the Shanghai exchange for more than a year now and it has fallen this year while the prices of other metals, most notably its sister metal zinc... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
