Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Widening Moroccan CA deficit not a cause for alarm Morocco’s current account deficit ballooned to its largest level in four years in Q4, but we think that this is temporary and that the shortfall will narrow this year. 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Swiss office rents to rise, but challenges aplenty Demand for CBD space is starting to reignite prime rental growth in Geneva and Zurich. But a weakening economy and competition from new, well-connected developments will limit further gains in rents. 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Indonesia: Jokowi will struggle to revive economy The two key economic challenges facing President Joko Widodo in his second term are boosting GDP growth and reducing Indonesia’s external vulnerabilities. We don’t think he will succeed in either. 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Feb.) After falling sharply in January, the trade deficit declined a little further in February thanks to a jump in civilian aircraft exports and a subdued gain in imports. Neither of those are particularly... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) & International Trade (Feb.) Recent declines in capacity constraints and inflation expectations suggest that March’s pick-up in core inflation is likely to be reversed before long. Meanwhile, the slump in export volumes in... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Short-term pain, long-term gain We think that the prices of most commodities will fall this year as global economic growth remains weak and investor risk aversion returns. While policy in China has become more accommodative, it is... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine policymakers beginning to panic The decision by Argentina’s central bank to limit the extent to which the nominal exchange rate will be allowed to weaken this year raises the risk that the peso becomes overvalued. Meanwhile, the... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy faltered in early 2019 Retail sales figures for February added to the evidence that South Africa’s economy struggled in the first months of the year. Growth will probably pick up later this year, but it will remain weak... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar.) The surprising softness of CPI inflation in March (it stayed at 1.9%) suggests that weak demand on the high street as Brexit uncertainty reached its peak may have forced retailers to discount their... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: Jokowi will struggle to revive economy The two key economic challenges facing President Joko Widodo in his second term are boosting GDP growth and reducing Indonesia’s external vulnerabilities. We don’t think he will succeed in either. 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Mar.) Inflation in South Africa picked up to 4.5% y/y in March due to petrol prices, but we think that it will soon ease. We’re sticking to our non-consensus view that policymakers will cut late this year. 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Emefiele’s legacy As CBN Governor Godwin Emefiele’s term draws to a close, we’ve taken a look at how his controversial decisions worsened Nigeria’s recent economic crisis. Given President Muhammadu Buhari’s views on... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Inventories to weigh on GDP growth later this year A surge in business inventories appears to have boosted first-quarter GDP, but the now elevated inventory-to-sales ratio suggests that inventories will be a drag over the remainder of this year, which... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) The 0.1% m/m decline in industrial production in March completed a weak first quarter in which industrial production contracted by 0.3% annualised, as the US factory sector succumbed to the global... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Fall in mortgage rates fails to boost buying sentiment Even as mortgage interest rates have fallen to 15-month lows, the share of Americans saying now is a good time to buy a home has stayed close to 10-year lows. While some rise in buying sentiment over... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
