Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: the economic impact of the attacks The deadly terrorist attacks that took place across Sri Lanka on Easter Sunday are first and foremost a human tragedy, but are also likely to have severe economic consequences. A big drop in tourist... 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Mar.) Power problems and weak prices have held back aluminium output so far this year. But we think that rising capacity and lower raw material costs will cause production to rise in the coming months. 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Mar.) March’s stronger-than-expected activity data suggest that Poland’s economy has, so far at least, shrugged off weakness in Germany. We estimate that GDP growth came in at around 4.5% y/y in Q1 – only a... 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Property demand to remain subdued A further acceleration in home prices on the official survey of 70 cities has sparked hopes that China’s residential property market may be heating up after more than a year of nearly flat sales. But... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities shrug off better news from China The stronger-than-expected economic activity data released this week by China failed to boost commodity markets. Part of the reason is probably that some of the good news had already been priced in... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Underperformance of German and Japanese equities may not last 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Soft PMIs dampen optimism about a global turnaround Hopes for an imminent revival of global growth were brought back down to earth by the latest batch of surveys. Falls in the US and euro-zone composite PMIs suggest that it’s too soon to call a global... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Bolsonaro’s unorthodoxy, Argentina’s inflation panic Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro this week has shown further signs that he is less committed to market orthodoxy than many had hoped. For now, it seems that parts of the administration are working... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Mixed signals for the Bank A slew of data releases this week presented mixed signals for the Bank of Canada ahead of next week’s policy meeting. Although core inflation has picked up and the economy probably performed a bit... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Headline GDP masks underlying weakness This week’s data releases helped to confirm that first-quarter GDP growth was much better than we originally feared, but the underlying strength of the domestic economy is a concern. As it stands now... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) The 1.0% m/m rebound in control group retail sales in March was not enough to prevent real consumption growth from slowing sharply in the first quarter, although it does at least provide a decent base... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Beautifully behaved The unemployment rate is close to the natural rate, inflation is close to the target and GDP growth is close to the economy’s potential rate, but interest rates are well below most estimates of the... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank on hold, Finland coalition talks to drag on The Riksbank is all but certain to keep its repo rate unchanged at -0.25% at its policy meeting next week. Meanwhile, coalition negotiations following last week’s election in Finland are likely to... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Mar.) March’s activity data suggest that Russian GDP growth slowed markedly at the start of this year, weakening from 2.8% y/y in Q4 to 1.0-1.5% y/y in Q1. The pace of expansion is likely to remain soft... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Stronger Q1 GDP growth would not be sustained The reasonably strong run of hard data for the first two months of the year has prompted us to revised up our estimate of Q1 GDP growth to 0.3% q/q. However, the downbeat tone of the business surveys... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) February’s 0.8% m/m rise in retail sales was a pleasant surprise given the unusually severe winter weather that month. Although consumer confidence has rebounded a touch so far this year, it is still... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
