Global Economic Outlook Much too soon to call a recovery We expect the recent weakness of global growth to persist for much longer than is commonly assumed. Previous policy tightening has yet to take its full toll on activity in the US and China’s stimulus... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Rotterdam offices top the league With prime rents in Rotterdam expected to grow by 7.5% in the next three years, we expect strong investor demand for the city to drive some of the largest office sector yield falls in Europe. This... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook In the shadow of the euro-zone Weak growth in the euro-zone overshadows near-term prospects in Switzerland and the Nordics. We expect activity to slow in most countries this year and to stay sluggish in 2020. As a result, price... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Polish fiscal plans, Turkish economy past the worst Plans outlined by Poland’s government this week confirmed that fiscal policy will be loosened significantly this year and that there will be more scope for stimulus in 2020 than we had previously... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) Not only did retail sales post a bumper rise in March, but February’s figure was revised up too, adding to the evidence that despite the political chaos, the economy grew at a decent rate of 0.3% q/q... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q1) There was an unexpected loosening in credit conditions at the start of the year. But with no let-up in economic uncertainty and continued gloom about the outlook for housing, we expected this will be... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egyptian competitiveness, Lebanon’s budget The Egyptian government’s decision this week to impose import tariffs on steel rebars and iron pellets highlights the government’s slippage on structural reforms and also suggests that the pound may... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Apr.) The disappointing flash PMIs for April suggest that, despite some stronger industrial production data in the first couple of months of this year, the euro-zone is not yet out of the woods. They also... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Stable inflation, Weak Q1 in SA, Emefiele’s legacy Soft inflation readings across Africa this week supported our view that policymakers will cut rates in key economies. New figures added to the evidence that South Africa stumbled in Q1, while Nigerian... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Low level of jobless claims too good to be true We are sceptical that the decline in initial jobless claims to a 50-year low is providing a reliable guide to current labour market conditions. In recent years, a number of states have made it more... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Economic growth to remain weak GDP growth in the euro-zone is likely to be only slightly stronger this year than in the second half of 2018. Hopes for a sharp rebound in export demand will probably be disappointed, meaning that the... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The collapse in US net imports drove crude oil stocks lower last week. We expect further slides in crude stocks as the maintenance season for refineries ends. 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM corporate earnings likely to disappoint The rally in EM equities has continued over the past month, seemingly driven by the view that recent weakness in the global economy will not last, as policymakers in the US and China in particular... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Policy on hold, but rate cuts coming The weakness of the recent business surveys suggests that the Bank of Canada will strike a dovish tone at its meeting next week. The Bank is unlikely to start talking about interest rate cuts just yet... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Mar.) Our Tracker suggests that overall EM capital outflows eased markedly in Q1. However, we think that positive sentiment towards EMs will start to turn over the coming quarters as worries about weak... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Chinese equities likely to fare badly, even if economy stabilises 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
