Canada Economics Update Growth to rebound in Q2, before dropping back An unwinding of the temporary factors that weighed on activity in January and February means that GDP growth will rebound from 1% annualised in the first quarter to about 2.2% in the second. That... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Why are the surveys weaker than the “hard” data? The “hard” data compiled by statistical agencies and policymakers have generally been rather better in advanced economies in the past month or so than the weaker surveys of economic activity. While... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Construction Market Survey (Q1) Workloads deteriorated further in Q1, although some improvement is expected. But with labour and finance constraining activity, commercial property supply is unlikely to increase substantially. 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI rose to 47.2 in April, providing a rare reason for optimism about the sector. This supports our view that economic conditions will strengthen in Q2. 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) April’s PMI data point to a sharp slowdown in industrial output in Central Europe in the coming months. The weakness in the euro-zone looks set to take a heavier toll on Czech industrial output... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) The manufacturing PMIs from Switzerland and the Nordics for April make for grim reading and suggest that economic conditions have stayed weak at the start of the second quarter. This supports our... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A drop in refining activity and a further increase in net imports saw a third consecutive weekly build in crude stocks, which are now at the highest since September 2017. An unexpected drawdown in the... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What explains the plunge in core inflation? In contrast to the sudden weakness in core inflation a few years ago, the latest plunge in core PCE inflation cannot be explained by idiosyncratic factors. Instead, it reflects a moderation in unit... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr.) The slump in the ISM manufacturing index to a 2½-year low in April illustrates that, after the contraction in manufacturing output in the first quarter, US factory conditions have deteriorated further... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian wage growth to recover Following several quarters of weakness, Russian wage growth will probably pick up a little over the coming months as public sector salaries are raised and labour market conditions continue to tighten... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will firms pass on rises in labour costs? With CPI inflation still subdued, firms’ profit margins appear to have borne the brunt of the recent rises in wage costs. However, we suspect that firms will pass on rising costs to consumers in time... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: revisiting sovereign debt risks The growing possibility of a lurch to the left in Argentina’s presidential election in October has rekindled sovereign default fears. While the government’s FX debt repayment schedule in the immediate... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Why lower US natural gas stocks are here to stay US natural gas stocks have remained stubbornly low in recent years. We think that this reflects a new norm in the natural gas market which is eroding the impact of stock levels on prices. 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Apr.) A gentle rise in mortgage interest rates over April helped cut mortgage applications for home purchase in the latter part of the month. And with home buying sentiment only receiving a modest boost... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are the euro-zone activity surveys too pessimistic? The official euro-zone activity data for Q1 were much stronger than the message from the business and consumer surveys. But we still think that the consistent weakness of the survey evidence bodes ill... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
