Commodities Chart Pack A US-China trade deal could lift commodity prices The prices of oil and iron ore made further gains in April owing to continued supply-side concerns, but the prices of most other commodities fell. Indeed, we also expect iron ore and oil prices to... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Surge in productivity growth a key upside risk The acceleration in productivity growth suggests the economy’s supply side is responding to the tightness of labour markets and the tax cuts introduced early last year. With investment growth slowing... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global industry still struggling While composite PMIs have been overstating the weakness of overall economic activity in recent months, manufacturing PMIs have generally maintained a better relationship with the “hard” industrial... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Burden of negative rates won’t prevent further easing Negative interest rates in Denmark, Switzerland, and Sweden impose costs on their respective banking sectors, but the overall burdens are very small – well below 0.1% of bank assets in all cases... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi budget position likely to deteriorate Saudi Arabia recorded a budget surplus in Q1 but, if oil prices drop back as we expect, the fiscal position is likely to deteriorate. This won’t cause significant balance sheet strains, although... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing PMI falls back as BRICs falter The drop in the headline EM manufacturing PMI in April was driven by weaker surveys out of all four BRIC economies. The breakdown of Markit’s aggregate EM survey showed that the rebound in EM exports... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Q1 2019 World Gold Council Demand Trends While flattered by base effects, a surge in central bank buying and strong inflows to exchange-traded funds (ETFs) meant that gold demand grew by a healthy 7% y/y in Q1. While central banks should... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Powell’s inflation talk doesn’t alter our bullish view of Treasuries 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What to expect from the European Parliament elections A surge in support for populist parties in European parliamentary elections later this month should have little bearing on economic policy in the near term. After all, moderate parties are still... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech tightening cycle comes to an end The interest rate hike at today’s monetary policy meeting probably marks the end of the Czech National Bank’s tightening cycle. While we think that the currency will fail to appreciate by as much as... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Inflation to fall despite higher oil prices Data due to be released tomorrow are set to show a jump in inflation in April. But given that this rise will largely be the result of Easter timing effects, it is unlikely to be sustained. And while... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Tougher FHA standards to drag on housing demand The introduction of tougher lending standards for mortgages insured by the FHA will provide another headwind to housing demand this year. While the removal of similar standards in 2016 did not have a... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update GDP growth still set to slow Neither the unexpectedly strong 3.2% gain in first-quarter GDP nor the outsized 0.7% m/m increase in real consumption in March changes our view that the US economy will experience a marked slowdown in... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update General hawkish message from the MPC Even after the announcement of the six-month Brexit delay, there was never much chance that the MPC would raise interest rates from its current rate of 0.75% with the possibility of a no deal Brexit... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Office rental growth lead to diminish in 2020-21 Western European office rents grew by 5.3% p.a. in 2016-18. We expect them to grow by little more than that over the next three years combined, as occupier demand slows and development completions... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi equity rally to fade, mixed news for Morocco Saudi equities have continued to rally this week, but we think that they will erase all of their recent gains by the end of this year. Meanwhile, projections from Morocco’s agriculture ministry... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
