UK Economics Update Shying away from borrowing to spend on big items The subdued rise in borrowing in March may be because Brexit has sapped households’ desire to borrow to buy big items. At the aggregate level, low interest rates mean that debt is still manageable. 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) The fall back in the manufacturing PMI in April was to be expected after activity was boosted by Brexit preparations ahead of the original Brexit date of 29th March, and suggests manufacturing output... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Mar.) We doubt that March’s slump in mortgage approvals signals the start of a collapse in mortgage lending. Rather, assuming a Brexit deal is done later this year, we think lending will see a modest fall... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Mar.) A strong increase in net lending in March boosted the Q1 total but we think that concerns about property values, particularly in the retail sector, will prevent a sustained rise in net lending this... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update More monetary tightening lies in store in Romania The National Bank of Romania’s decision to maintain strict control over money market liquidity marks a step in the right direction to addressing the large build-up of economic imbalances. But we think... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Apr.) House price growth was subdued in April, and we expect that trend to continue across our forecast – even assuming a Brexit deal is agreed later this year. 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is the worst now over for Korean exporters? The rebound in Korean exports in April, which was mainly due to a further recovery in demand for semi-conductors, supports our view that the worst is now over for the export sector and the broader... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Growth in frontiers has probably bottomed out Aggregate frontier market GDP growth probably slowed to its weakest pace since early 2017 in Q1 and, while we think that this should mark the bottom of the cycle, activity in most frontiers will... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi slowdown has further to run After reaching a three-year high in Q4 2018, GDP growth in Saudi Arabia has slowed at the start of this year as the drag from oil output cuts has more than offset a pick-up in activity in the non-oil... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Investors still banking on an unlikely revival in China’s economy 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Feb.) Easing housing demand helped annual house price growth drop to a 6½-year low in February. We expect that slowdown will continue but, with inventory levels close to record lows and mortgage interest... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q1, Prov.) Preliminary data showing a surprise 0.2% q/q contraction in Mexican GDP in Q1 made for ugly reading, and the risks to our above-consensus growth forecast for this year now lie firmly to the downside... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Feb.) The 0.1% m/m decline in monthly real GDP in February was principally due to the unseasonably severe weather this winter and the associated disruption to rail transportation, which had a knock-on... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Why does Indonesia want to move its capital city? There are good reasons why Indonesia wants to move its capital city away from Jakarta, but any move faces significant obstacles. The main reason for wanting to move is that Jakarta is sinking... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Brexit delay contributes to looser financial conditions The marginal loosening in overall financial conditions since the second delay to Brexit until 31st October and the recent reduction in fears about the outlook for the global economy suggest that the... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs point to subdued commodities demand The April survey data suggest China’s economy has entered a softer patch and underpin our view that most industrial and oil prices will ease back in the coming months. 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
