Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA still likely to cut before long The Reserve Bank of Australia made only the slightest downward revisions to its forecasts when it left interest rates unchanged at 1.50% today. But it noted that further improvements in the labour... 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales & International Trade (Mar./Q1) Subdued growth in real retail sales in Q1 means consumption growth may have eased from the end of 2018. Meanwhile falling import volumes probably meant that net trade made a solid contribution to GDP... 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Apr.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have risen in April due to another pick up in food inflation. However, it will have remained below the RBI’s 4.0% target. That will be enough to prompt... 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Targeted RRR cut to shore up lending growth Bank lending to small firms should receive a sizeable boost from the planned reduction in the required reserve ratio for many rural banks, pushing up overall bank loan growth in the process. While... 6th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q1) GDP growth in Indonesia has been suspiciously stable at around 5% over the past five years, and it was no surprise that it recorded another quarter of growth at close to this rate in the first quarter... 6th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus What does slower growth in China mean for Australia? China’s slower housing and infrastructure investment growth will weigh on demand for iron ore and metallurgical coal. Further increases in services exports are unlikely to offset that drag. The coming... 6th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus South Africa: Election unlikely to spur reforms President Cyril Ramaphosa’s ANC is all-but certain to win this week’s election, but we’re sceptical that this will provide impetus to his sluggish reform drive. The ruling party will, after all... 6th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Upturn in global growth unlikely to last “Hard” activity data from earlier in the year and a range of business surveys had pointed to a further slowdown in the world economy in the first quarter, but global GDP growth looks to have surprised... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodity prices take direction from the Fed Weaker-than-expected Chinese manufacturing surveys and a fairly hawkish statement from the Fed sent the prices of most commodities lower again this week. Industrial commodities prices were also hit... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina policy U-turn continues, Maduro clings on The decision by Argentina’s central bank to scrap the peso’s trading band and signal more FX intervention has shored up the currency this week but, sooner rather than later, markets are likely to test... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update We expect the US dollar to make more headway We haven’t been surprised by this year’s rise in the US dollar’s value against other “majors”, despite investors’ dovish reassessment of the outlook for Fed policy. Despite its pull-back today, we... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is Trump right and the Fed wrong? President Donald Trump was at his trolling best earlier in the week when he tweeted shortly before the FOMC meeting that the Fed should cut interest rates by 1% point and restart quantitative easing... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Fed still likely to cut rates this year, pushing Treasury yields down 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy stronger in March, but housing still an issue Following February’s only modest decline in GDP, the economy is on track to do better than the Bank of Canada expected in the first half of the year. But the most recent housing data and this week’s... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will transactions see a Brexit bounce in 2019? Housing market uncertainty may soon start to ease. But a recovery in mortgage approvals or transactions is still unlikely this year. Indeed, given the high level of house prices relative to earnings... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The 263,000 surge in payroll employment in April was much better than we had expected and kept the six-month trend above 200,000. Some of the details were less positive, with hours worked falling back... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
