UK Economics Update What Q1 will give, Q2 may take away While the release of the GDP data for Q1 this Friday will probably show that the economy grew at a healthy clip, we doubt that Q2 will be as good. 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The implications of a collapse in US/China trade talks We think that the direct effects of President Trump’s threatened tariff hikes could reduce Chinese GDP by up to 0.4% and that the associated retaliation would have only a marginal direct impact on the... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s oil imports flattered by stockbuilding Aside from oil, China’s commodity imports have generally been soft since the start of this year and there are now signs that export volumes are starting to come off the boil. Imports may pick up later... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus SNB to cut interest rates further into negative territory If the ECB re-starts QE next year, as we think is likely, the resulting upward pressure on the Swiss franc would stoke deflationary fears at the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and prompt a policy response... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand to leave rates on hold this year Despite the downbeat outlook for Thailand’s economy, the central bank (BoT) left interest rates unchanged at its meeting today. Continued concerns over risks in the financial sector mean that it is... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Apr.) The sharp rise in Halifax house price growth stands in contrast to the other housing market data and should be interpreted with care. Indeed, our outlook for house price growth is much weaker, with... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Mar.) The increase in industrial production in March is not as a good as it looks at first sight, not least because it was largely due to another increase in construction activity. Moreover, the business... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank going it alone, SNB and Riksbank on hold We expect policymakers in Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, and Sweden to all leave interest rates unchanged at their next policy meetings over the coming weeks and months. In the case of the Norges Bank... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ will cut again before the year is out Subdued economic growth and a softening labour market mean that today’s interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be repeated before the year is out. 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack House price growth to slow further as sales stagnate A gentle rise in mortgage interest rates led to a drop in mortgage applications for purchase over April, reversing some of the gains seen since the start of March. Subdued home buying sentiment... 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily US economy a bigger risk than renewed trade conflict to S&P 500 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Apr.) The small fall in Russian inflation to 5.2% y/y last month will provide reassurance to the central bank that inflation has now passed its peak. We expect the headline rate to ease further in the... 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: Istanbul election re-run poses stimulus risks The decision to cancel and re-run the Istanbul mayoral election is likely to prompt the Turkish government to continue loosening fiscal policy in the coming weeks. Past experience suggests that the... 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update “No trade deal” back on the cards The risk of an escalation in the tariff war between the US and China has negative implications for our already subdued outlook for the global economy and commodity prices this year. 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM LC bonds unlikely to keep tracking US Treasuries While the average EM 10-year local currency sovereign bond yield has followed the equivalent US Treasury yield very closely recently, we doubt that this will last much longer. Indeed, we forecast that... 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Another cut likely in Malaysia before year-end With economic growth likely to remain weak throughout 2019, today’s 25bps rate cut by the central bank in Malaysia (BNM) is likely to be followed by further easing later in the year. 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
