Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sub-50 Swiss PMI, lower oil prices weigh on NOK As we expected, the KOF Economic Barometer from Switzerland edged down in April and remained consistent with Swiss GDP growth staying subdued in quarterly terms this year. The sub-50 reading for the... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Mar.) The larger-than-expected contraction in Brazilian industrial production in March, of 1.3% m/m, means that the Q1 GDP data are likely to be ugly. We’ll firm up our forecast when more data are released... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong Q1 data probably a false dawn The rebound in euro-zone GDP growth to a respectable 0.4% q/q in the first quarter of this year has been greeted by many as proof that the economy is back on track. But we suspect that the expansion... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What to expect from the European Parliament elections A surge in support for populist parties in European parliamentary elections later this month should have little bearing on economic policy in the near term. After all, moderate parties are still... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Financial sector opening, bad debt disclosures Efforts to open the door to more foreign participation in China’s financial sector took another step forward this week. But without broader free-market reforms, foreign entrants may still struggle to... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC takes a hawkish turn, Brexit hangover in Q2 The most surprising news from the Bank of England’s Inflation Report this week was not the suggestion that interest rates need to rise more quickly than the markets currently anticipate, but the... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CBRT’s mixed messages, Polish rate expectations The Turkish central bank’s messaging to investors has become even more confused over the past week and the institution’s damaged credibility means that it will be even more difficult for policymakers... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why bond investors shouldn’t dread the EU elections We doubt that bond markets will be negatively affected by the European Parliament (EP) elections this month, as the rise of anti-EU parties is already widely anticipated and would not necessarily... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South African election, budgets in Nigeria & Kenya We doubt that next week’s South African election will do much to boost President Cyril Ramaphosa’s reform drive. Elsewhere, Kenyan officials released a first draft of next year’s budget, with the... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Apr.) The jump in the euro-zone’s core inflation rate in April was largely due to Easter timing effects, and is likely to be reversed in May. We expect the headline rate to fall below 1% towards the end of... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Apr.) With Brexit having been delayed until 31st October, the slightly more upbeat tone of April’s IHS Markit/CIPS services survey was not too surprising. However, the PMI remained at a low level and we... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Risks in the Philippines, Indonesia Activity Tracker The decision by the rating agency Standard & Poor’s to upgrade its long-term credit rating for the Philippines to BBB+ risks underplaying the country’s worsening external position as well as its... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Apr.) The weaker-than-expected Turkish inflation data for April will come as some relief to the central bank. But with a number of downside risks facing the lira, policymaker’s recent dovish shift feels... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Consumer Prices (Apr.) This morning’s release of inflation data from Switzerland for April yielded no surprises and showed that price pressures remain almost completely absent. We expect the headline rate to fall close to... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Record GST revenues, weaker rupee The surge in GST revenues over recent months won’t be enough to solve the government’s fiscal woes in the near term. However, it does suggest that compliance with the new tax system is improving, and... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Imperial succession & trade talks The reduction in the number of working days will reduce the annual growth rate of industrial production and exports but it will have no impact on the more closely-watched monthly changes. Nor will it... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
