UK Economics Update Rising services inflation to bolster case for rate hikes The sluggishness in CPI inflation can partly be explained by factors that will prove temporary. And with cost pressures building, there is scope for services inflation to push the CPI rate higher than... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Bahrain’s fiscal woes, Tadawul falls, PMIs positive Developments in Bahrain over the past week suggest that the government is backtracking on its commitment to fiscal austerity. We doubt that the other Gulf countries will withdraw their support but, if... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Oil supply fears fading fast The price of oil rose a little last month owing in part to supply concerns regarding the US decision to end sanction waivers on Iran’s oil exports. We now expect Iran’s output to fall further and have... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further rate cuts coming in the Philippines The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) cut interest rates by 25bp today, and further interest rate cuts seem only a matter of time. Given the subdued outlook for inflation and the dovish nature of... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What’s behind the strength of Hungarian inflation? The recent pick-up in Hungarian core inflation is partly a result of tax changes but also reflects rapid wage growth, and this is likely to cause underlying price pressures to continue to build. We... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Policy Rate Decision (May) Today’s decision by the Norges Bank to leave its policy rate on hold at 1.00% is just a brief pause in its tightening cycle, with another hike now almost certain in June. With core inflation set to... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian central bank looking through inflation rise Copom’s statement from last night’s meeting highlighted that policymakers are not troubled at all by the recent jump in inflation and, rightly in our view, see it as temporary. If anything, they are... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Apr.) Egyptian inflation dropped back in April but given that it remained above target, the chance of an interest rate cut at the MPC meeting in two weeks’ time is touch and go. For now, though, we still... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Apr.) Falling buyer enquiries and sales instructions point to further housing market weakness. And the rental market data also suggest that landlord instructions weakened. That supports our view that rental... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr.) Both official measures of inflation picked up last month but this was mostly due to supply-side factors and therefore shouldn’t be interpreted as clear evidence of stronger domestic demand. 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The implications of a collapse in US/China trade talks We think that the direct effects of President Trump’s threatened tariff hikes could reduce Chinese GDP by up to 0.5%* and that the associated retaliation would have only a marginal direct impact on... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack China weakness to weigh on prices regardless of trade The prices of most industrial metals fell over the past month, and were hit particularly hard in recent days by downbeat Chinese manufacturing surveys, and US-China trade talks taking a turn for the... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report After US crude stocks reached their highest since September 2017, the beginning of May saw a partial reversal in recent builds. The latest stock draw was fuelled by a fall in net imports and an... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Apr. 2019) Our Tracker suggests that EMs received positive (albeit small) net capital inflows in April. But fresh currency stress in Argentina and Turkey as well as concerns about renewed trade tensions suggest... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Malaysia’s economy one year after election One year on from Mahathir’s shock re-election, the Malaysian prime minister has made some useful progress in tackling corruption, but his decision to eliminate the Goods and Service Tax (GST) and... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
