India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Apr.) The drop in wholesale price inflation in April will increase the clamour for another rate cut in June. But we think that underlying inflation will soon rise again, which underlines the risks... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus How will policymakers respond to the next downturn? If the next downturn is a mild, cyclical one we would expect the Bank of Japan to cut its short-term policy rate but leave its 10-year yield target unchanged. Fiscal stimulus would probably have to do... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Databank This Databank provides our forecasts out to 2038 for twenty major global economies, covering key macroeconomic and financial market variables. Click on the Excel spreadsheet link below to download the... 13th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Rising trade tensions and what they mean for EMs The latest increase in trade tensions between the US and China so far appears to have had a larger impact on EM currency markets than previous flare-ups in the trade war. But the impact of the latest... 13th May 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Renewed curve inversion suggests slide in S&P 500 is not over 13th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How big a threat are US tariffs to the EU? The US is stepping up the pressure on China to agree a trade deal, and a deadline to decide whether to raise tariffs on all auto imports is looming. On their own, those tariffs would do little damage... 13th May 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) Further interest rate cuts in India look only a matter of time after headline inflation in April came in at a below-target 2.9% y/y. However, we continue to think that further monetary loosening is a... 13th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update The impact of the trade war on the rest of Asia The trade war between the US and China has so far had a very small impact on the rest of Asia, which has been dwarfed by the much bigger impact of the slowdown in global growth and the downturn in the... 13th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway’s GDP (Q1) The slowdown in mainland Norway GDP growth in Q1, from an upwardly-revised 1.1% q/q in Q4 to 0.3% in Q1, was sharper than we had expected. However, the result was driven in part by a weather-related... 13th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Tariffs are not good news for commodity prices President Trump’s decision to ratchet up the pressure on China by raising trade tariffs weighed heavily on most commodity prices this week. However, market sentiment improved a little on Friday as it... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Data point to stronger GDP growth in Q2 The data this week confirmed that the economy is on track for a stronger second quarter than the Bank of Canada is expecting. While exports performed well in March, growing trade tensions with China... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico CPI boosted by Easter, dovish Andean CBs Data released this week confirming a further rise in Mexican inflation last month were eye-catching, but it looks like Easter effects were partly to blame. Elsewhere, dovish statements accompanying... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Trade dispute with China not a major threat to outlook President Donald Trump’s surprise move this week to impose higher tariffs on $200bn of Chinese imports could mark the start of a significant escalation in the trade dispute. Nevertheless, it might... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Higher yields in prospect across all sectors With Brexit delayed, occupier demand is likely to be soft this year and interest rates lower for longer. However, our working assumption is that a deal will be struck this year. In turn, we expect the... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Post-tariff bounce in China’s stock markets unlikely to last 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports to stay weak, regardless of trade war The rise in the US tariff rate on $200bn of imports from China that came into force today is only likely to have a small impact on China’s economy, let alone the rest of the emerging world. But... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
