OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (May) Following the recent escalation of US sanctions on Iran’s crude exports, attention has been focused on OPEC’s next move. An upward revision to global demand for OPEC crude could give some members... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Impact of US auto tariffs limited to a few countries With the twists and turns in the US-China trade talks grabbing most of the headlines, the looming deadline for the decision on US auto tariffs as part of the Section 232 investigation has received... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What the rise in US-Iran tensions means for the Gulf Mounting friction between the US and Iran is likely to cause Iran’s economic downturn to deepen but, on its own, this doesn’t pose a major problem for the Gulf economies. The bigger threat is that... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: IMF deal to cause growth to slow Pakistan’s agreement with the IMF is likely to lead to slower growth and higher inflation in the short term. However, policy tightening and structural reforms should lead to an improvement in the... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: More railway problems, commercial debt worries The latest changes to Kenya’s railway plan have focused attention on the Chinese-funded SGR project. But the country’s real debt problems surround its growing eurobond sales, which will increase with... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Brazilian inflation? Brazilian inflation has probably now reached a peak and the headline rate should fall below the central bank’s target in the coming months. With core inflation still extremely soft, the central bank... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will ending PDRs be bad news for housing supply? Labour intends to end Permitted Development Rights (PDRs) for office to residential conversions. This is a further blow to this scheme, which was already losing momentum, though it is unlikely to make... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Have Warsaw office rents really turned a corner? Warsaw office demand is likely to slow over the next two years, while completions of new space will increase. But, we still expect to see an overall rise in prime CBD rents in the next few years. 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Trouble brewing in coffee markets Coffee prices recently reached their lowest levels in around a decade. That said, we suspect that prices are bottoming out and should pick up slightly by the end of this year. But looking beyond 2019... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Mar.) The euro-zone industrial production data for March show that while output in the sector expanded in Q1, this was not enough to offset Q4’s contraction. And with global economic growth set to remain... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oversupply plagues the wheat market Persistently high production and stocks have led us to revise down our price forecast for wheat. Indeed, in its first estimate of the 2019/20 season, the USDA expects the market to be in a large... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Mar.) Despite the unemployment rate edging down to a fresh 45-year low, March’s figures painted a picture of a softening labour market. That is in line with our forecast for employment growth to ease this... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Alternatives to prop up overall investment activity The recent strength of alternative investment does not appear to reflect a broadening in the investor base, but with interest rates unlikely to rise until next year, we think that a continuation of... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Apr.) The small pick-up in Swedish inflation in April was caused by the later timing of Easter this year. Amid signs that economic growth has slowed sharply in the first half of 2019, we expect headline... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Mar.) The much better-than-expected 2.1% rise in Turkish industrial production in March adds to signs that the economy grew in Q1, by around 0.5-0.8% q/q. But the recent tightening of financial conditions... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
