Europe Economics Weekly German green shoots and Greek fiscal concerns This week saw further signs that the German economy regained some momentum at the end of Q1, as industrial production rose and exports picked up in March. But with the business surveys for March and... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Regional slowdown, Turkey’s bumpy recovery The raft of Q1 GDP data due next week are likely to show that aggregate growth in Emerging Europe slowed to its weakest pace in over two years. Much of this reflects weakness in Russia; growth in... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) April’s 107,000 rise in employment blew the consensus out of the water and will encourage policymakers. But the increase was less impressive than it first seemed, with over half of the gain coming... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank takes a pause, SNB to cut further The Norges Bank held interest rates on hold at 1.00% at its meeting on Thursday but signalled that it will “most likely” resume its tightening cycle at the next meeting, in June. Meanwhile, the... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Higher tariffs do not change our already bearish view A total breakdown in US-China trade talks would undoubtedly be a further negative for the prices of most industrial metals. However, regardless of the latest tariff increase, we had already expected a... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Mar.) The much larger-than-expected contraction in Mexican industrial production in March, of 1.3% m/m, will diminish hopes of an upwards revision to the dire provisional Q1 GDP figure. With the economy... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The subdued 0.1% m/m gain in core consumer prices last month was in part driven by falls in clothing and used car prices, which may be reversed in the coming months. But the bigger story has been the... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack No rebound after Brexit delay Housing market conditions were weak in April, as the delay to Brexit did little to rebuild confidence in among buyers and sellers. Looking ahead, we expect uncertainty and high house prices to further... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Zambia: Sliding towards a debt crisis Zambia’s public debt position has long been untenable, but the situation is now escalating. The country faces the choice between fiscal tightening (possibly as part of an IMF debt deal) or a more... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Grey clouds on the horizon for the labour market Preparations for the moving target of Brexit day flattered the Q1 GDP figures and therefore could give way to a hangover in Q2. But this should just be a timing effect. How the labour market performs... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Tweaks to forward guidance won’t be enough While the major advanced economy central banks have made no significant policy changes in recent weeks, a key theme has been a continued shift in their forward guidance to imply that interest rates... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Apr.) The further rise in Brazilian inflation, to 4.9% y/y in April, is unlikely to trouble Copom. The increase was driven by food, energy and administered prices; core inflation still looks soft. The... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Returns from Dublin offices to slip further In spite of healthy occupier demand of late, poor rental growth prospects mean that total returns from Dublin offices will continue to be amongst the lowest in the euro-zone. 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Policymakers haven’t saved the day We think the assumption in markets that looser policy in the US and China will revive the global economy before very long is too optimistic. We are forecasting further weakness, regardless of whether... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly More of the same in Indonesia, Thai election result In his first major policy speech since his re-election President Joko Widodo promised to press ahead with plans to boost infrastructure spending, reduce bureaucracy and open up the economy to foreign... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Weak mandate for Ramaphosa, Another term for Emefiele The comparatively poor showing by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s ANC in Wednesday's election will probably weaken the reformist leader in his on-going struggle with intra-party rivals... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
