UK Data Response GDP: First Estimate (Q1 2019) The Q1 GDP figures presented a slightly stronger picture of the economy’s recent performance than we had expected. But with some activity likely to have been brought forward, we doubt Q2 will be as... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian & Danish Consumer Prices (Apr.) Norwegian inflation data for April, released this morning, remained well above the Norges Bank’s 2.0% target and will reinforce policymakers’ current hawkish stance. 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Tariff hike, fiscal support, inflation risks The US hiked tariffs on Chinese goods on Friday. This escalation in trade tensions comes at a challenging time for the Chinese economy, with export growth already weak, fiscal support waning and swine... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA set to be disappointed by the economy The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) sounded a little more upbeat than the statement issued after the Bank kept rates on hold on Tuesday. We still think that the... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Data concerns come to the fore again Recent revelations have once again cast a spotlight on the accuracy of Indian data, but unfortunately, we doubt that the formation of an independent regulator, that some have called for, would lead to... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Mar.) The recent slump in wage growth reflects sampling changes as well as falling working hours. Given the current level of the unemployment rate, wages should be growing by around 1% and we expect a... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update House price falls in San Francisco to be modest Annual house price growth in San Francisco, and some other western cities, looks set to turn negative over the next few months. But with no sign of a rise in the number of homes being put on the... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Safe havens likely to remain in demand regardless of trade deal 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Balance sheets improving, but vulnerabilities remain The health of balance sheets across the Middle East and North Africa have come under the spotlight in recent months. We are most concerned about some of the smaller economies, particularly Lebanon. 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Little chance of a much bigger fiscal stimulus On current plans, national governments in the euro-zone will deliver a modest fiscal stimulus worth around 0.5% of GDP during 2019 and 2020 combined. Hopes that it might be scaled up significantly... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Mar.) March’s rise in export volumes only partially reversed February’s slump, but exports probably rose again in April. After being a big drag on first-quarter GDP growth, which we estimate was only 1.0%... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Mar.) & Producer Prices (Apr.) With the rising possibility of a big escalation in the US-China trade dispute this week, March’s trade figures could represent the calm before the storm. The trade deficit widened trivially to $50.0bn... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Apr.) The rise in Mexican inflation last month, to 4.4% y/y, is likely to mark the peak and we expect the headline rate to decline over the next few months. This, combined with weak economic activity, will... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy ending Q1 on less gloomy note Activity figures for March were stronger than those for February, but it still looks almost certain that South Africa’s economy contracted in Q1. Conditions seem to have improved in April, and we... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s pension reform: entering choppy waters… Opposition to Brazil’s pension reform has, so far, been limited to fairly minor components of the bill. But it will face more substantial resistance in the coming months. Ultimately, our sense is that... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack April jump in inflation won’t last Euro-zone GDP growth was stronger than expected in Q1, at 0.4% q/q, but we suspect that it will slow again in the coming quarters. Activity was flattered by the comparison with a weak end to 2018 and... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
