Today’s decision by the Norges Bank to leave its policy rate on hold at 1.00% is just a brief pause in its tightening cycle, with another hike now almost certain in June. With core inflation set to remain above target this year, we have a further rate rise pencilled in Q4 to 1.50%. However, if our forecast for oil prices to fall this year proves accurate, policymakers are likely to keep rates on hold in 2020.
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