Capital Daily Aussie dollar may fall further, particularly against the yen 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Tariffs alone won’t change the Fed’s plans President Donald Trump clearly isn’t the only one hoping that the Fed will ride to the rescue amid the escalating trade dispute with China, with the markets now convinced that interest rates will be... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Bunds rally amid trade tensions and Italian fiscal risks Developments this week suggest that Italy’s government is on another collision course with the European Commission. Meanwhile, the risk of US car tariffs has eased, but it has not disappeared. Finally... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q1 2019) The much weaker-than-anticipated Russian Q1 GDP growth figure of 0.5% y/y is consistent with a q/q contraction in output. We think that this probably marks the trough and growth should pick up over... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update After a stable 2018, Berlin office yields can fall again Prime office yields in Berlin have been stable over the past 18 months, in spite of strong rental growth expectations. With tighter monetary policy now some way off, and yields on assets with a... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly S. Africa stumbles, Unemployment rises, Kenya bond sale Activity data out this week added to the evidence that South Africa’s economy contracted by about 2% in Q1. Figures out next week, by contrast, will probably show that growth accelerated in Nigeria... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit sabbatical drawing to a close If you have been enjoying the respite from incessant Brexit headlines over the past few weeks, I’m afraid it’s bad news. This week’s fall in the pound to a three-month low of $1.28 reflects Brexit... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE GDP, Turkey fiscal stimulus & Russian tainted oil An impressive batch of GDP data from Central and Eastern Europe, released this week, added to the evidence that strong domestic demand is offsetting external weakness. Elsewhere, Turkey’s budget... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q1) Hong Kong’s GDP growth slowed again in the first quarter of the year, and the economy is now expanding at its slowest pace since the global financial crisis. With exports likely to remain in the... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norwegian economy takes a breather We suspect that the weather-related weak patch in Norwegian activity in Q1 will prove temporary. Meanwhile, following the recent flare-up in trade tensions and the Swedish Riksbank’s dovish shift, we... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines loosens further, Pakistan back to the IMF The recently announced cut to the reserve requirement ratio in the Philippines should provide a boost to economic growth and suggests that further cuts to the policy rate are likely soon. Meanwhile... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Q1 resilience won’t mark the end of the global slowdown Global GDP growth in the first quarter was stronger than the January and February data had initially ledus to fear, but we do not think that this marks a turnaround in the fortunes of the world... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Bankruptcy code is finding its feet Three years to the week that it was ratified, India’s bankruptcy code is now making a significant difference to the speed at which bankruptcy cases are resolved and the amount that creditors are able... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Echoes of 2018 This month’s escalation of US-China trade tensions and renewed concerns about Argentina and Turkey’s economic vulnerabilities have clear parallels with 2018, when these same factors triggered a sell... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Labour market’s strong performance will soon end Trade uncertainty and increased competition in the food delivery service sector help to explain the unusual strength of employment growth. Surveys now suggest that jobs growth will slow and, even with... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy is heading for another clash with the EU Recent comments by Italy’s deputy prime minister have increased the risk that Italy is placed in an EU disciplinary procedure later this year. There are a few ways that talks about Italy’s fiscal... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
