Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks returned to their recent run of unseasonal builds last week. This was despite the refinery utilisation rate, net imports and production all implying a drawdown. That said, there is... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily BTPs likely to continue underperforming other peripheral bonds 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: elections bode poorly for long-run outlook The strong performance by Duterte’s supporters in the midterm elections should lead to further progress on pushing through economic reforms. However, the results will do little to stop the country’s... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Apr.) The weaker tone of April’s activity data, with control group retail sales unchanged and manufacturing output falling sharply, supports our view that GDP growth is set to slow in the second quarter. 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) April’s modest rise in headline inflation to 2.0%, from 1.9%, was partly due to temporary factors so we expect inflation to edge back down in May. While base effects from last year mean that core... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update S&P 500’s post-GFC surge is on borrowed time Although the rebound in US equities since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) contrasts starkly with their protracted slump after the Great Crash, it has been largely justified by a rebound in corporate... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update PBOC and Fed policy loosening won’t hinge on tariffs President Trump’s claim that the PBOC will loosen policy in the months ahead may prove accurate, but this will be a justified response to a weaker economy and not a direct retort to tariffs. And while... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Shift toward building cheaper homes will support sales Tax reform and lower lumber prices have led to a rise in the construction of smaller, lower-priced homes. We expect that trend will continue, helping to relieve the shortage of affordable homes on the... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Tariffs remain a big risk for the DAX Although equities in the euro-zone have fallen sharply in the past week as the US-China trade dispute has flared up again, they are still much higher than they were at the start of the year. This... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Buffeted by global forces For the remainder of this year UK assets will probably be buffeted by global trends, resulting in UK equity prices falling by about 10%, 10-year gilt yields declining from 1.05% to around 1.00% and... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Activity data point to grim result in Q1 March retail sales figures released today added to the evidence that South Africa’s economy contracted by about 2.0% in Q1. This strengthens our belief that the next rate move will be a cut. 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German GDP, Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q1) Given that the improvement in Q1 was at least partly due to temporary factors, and that business surveys have remained uniformly downbeat, we suspect that the German economy will lose momentum again... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q1 2019) Another strong batch of GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe suggests that strong domestic demand continued to offset weak external demand in Q1. We expect that growth will remain robust over the... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Apr.) The April activity and spending data were weaker than anticipated across the board, confirming our doubts about the durability of March’s strength and increasing the likelihood of further policy... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Implications of the escalating trade war The impact of the renewed escalation of trade tensions between the US and China on Japan’s economy should be small even allowing for second-round effects on financial markets and confidence. A bigger... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Investor gloom set to deepen Industrial metals prices have slid in recent weeks and despite investor positions approaching a three-year trough, we think that further investor selling will contribute to even lower metals prices... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
