Capital Daily Bund yields likely to stay negative for much longer than in 2016 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What might trigger a hard landing in China? Structural headwinds will weigh on China’s growth rate over the coming decade. If well managed, this slowdown will be gradual. But a more abrupt adjustment shouldn’t be ruled out. We see two main... 16th May 2019 · 18 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Apr.) Housing starts maintained their recent revival during April, while building permits also rose. Strong housebuilder confidence and solid underlying demand are expected to support starts over the next... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Mar.) Following transport-related disruption in February, manufacturing sales more than made up for that earlier weakness with a 2.1% m/m rise in March. Given the subdued tone of the business surveys... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Iran tensions hit markets, Tunisia’s external risks mount Mounting friction between the US and Iran has dominated the news flow this week and weighed on financial markets across the MENA region. Investors seem to be most concerned that Lebanon will get... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Lower bond yields won’t stop rises in property yields Although bond yields have fallen, property yields have edged higher and we expect this divergence to continue this year as uncertainty has been prolonged and as concerns over rental growth prospects... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: rate cuts unlikely despite dovish shift Bank Indonesia (BI) left rates unchanged at 6.0% at its meeting today and hinted that it may consider loosening policy over the coming months. However, with the rupiah likely to lose more ground... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Who is getting a pay rise of over 3%? The labour market is running hot, but some people doubt that wages are rising by more than 3% a year. That is probably because higher pay growth is being driven by the small share of workers switching... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Q1 resilience won’t mark the end of the global slowdown Global GDP growth in the first quarter was stronger than the January and February data had initially led us to fear, but we do not think that this marks a turnaround in the fortunes of the world... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update PBOC still wary of CNY weakness despite tariff threat The 2% fall in the renminbi since the US-China trade war flared up again reflects market pressure more than a deliberate policy choice – Chinese policymakers have actually been trying to slow its... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update China’s tariff is a major setback for US LNG China’s decision to raise its tariff on US LNG imports from 10% to 25% from 1st June effectively rules the US out of the world’s second-largest, and fastest-growing, market. It will also weigh on spot... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update New (lower) forecasts for the Swedish krona Following the recent flare-up in global trade tensions and dovish shift in the Riksbank’s stance, we have revised down our already below-consensus end-2019 forecast for the krona against the euro from... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q1) Following a slight slowdown in the first quarter, Malaysia’s economy is set to lose further momentum over the rest of the year as tighter fiscal policy, weaker consumer spending and a tough external... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update External deficit in check amid rising trade tensions India’s monthly goods trade deficit widened in April but, given its very low exposure to a ratcheting up of trade tensions between the US and China and the fact that oil prices are likely to fall, we... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Apr.) The rise in unemployment in April was largely due to a jump in the labour force participation rate so the RBA may not feel pressured to ease policy immediately. But as unemployment remains high over... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q1 2019) The pick-up in Colombian GDP growth from 2.7% y/y in Q4 to 2.8% y/y in Q1 was driven in large part by robust domestic demand. While the consensus expects momentum to pick up this year, we expect... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
