US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jul.) The lacklustre performance of housing starts seen since the start of year continued in July, with a marginal gain of under 1% m/m in both single and multifamily starts. Single-family starts are being... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jun.) June’s gain in sales was flattered by the energy sector, but the key take away is that another rise in unfilled orders bodes well for growth in the third quarter and suggests inflationary pressures... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Credit has continued to expand steadily in most major advanced economies in recent months and is rising particularly strongly in the US. Meanwhile, the currency crisis in Turkey has so far had only a... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Dollar is still a key driver of commodity prices After breaking down in April and May, the relationship between the dollar and commodity prices seems to have re-established itself. Given our view that the dollar will remain strong into 2019... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Soft inflation won’t stop rate rises in Sweden, Norway The latest inflation data in Switzerland and the Nordic economies show that underlying inflation is fairly low. But we doubt that this will stop the Norges Bank or Riksbank from raising interest rates... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Pressure on Egypt’s pound? Egyptian dollar bonds have performed particularly poorly this week, suggesting that the recent turmoil in EM financial markets exacerbated the slowdown in capital inflows to the country that was... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) The stronger-than-expected increase in retail sales volumes in July suggests that some recovery in consumer spending growth is in the pipeline. 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Malaysia: what to make of Mahathir’s first 100 days Following his shock election victory at the start of May, 93-year-old Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has wasted no time in carrying out his main campaign promises. With his first 100 days in office... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update September rate hike by Norges Bank looks nailed on After leaving policy unchanged today, the Norges Bank looks almost certain to begin raising interest rates at its next meeting in September. But even as the central bank tightens monetary policy over... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Jul.) The surprise decline in employment July isn’t a big concern as other evidence suggests the economy has not stalled. But even if the labour market were to shift back into top gear in the coming months... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Jul.) The deterioration in the trade balance in July reflects a combination of rising import volumes and higher energy prices. We expect crude oil prices to fall over the coming months so the trade balance... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q2 2018) Colombian GDP growth increased from 2.2% y/y in Q1 to 2.8% y/y in Q2, and we think the recovery will strengthen by more than the consensus expects over the coming quarters. 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Valuations don’t appear unsustainably high There is a widely-held view that the prices of many financial assets are bound to come crashing down sooner or later, because their valuations have risen far above the long-run averages to which they... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil jumped last week due to a surge in net imports, despite record demand from refineries. Even though consumption is strong at the minute, we expect a slowdown in US economic... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Little movement in office & retail yields The second quarter of the year saw further signs that the euro-zone property market upswing is close to an end. With a 5% annual fall in investment, activity is now starting to track sideways on a... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Limited yield falls and rental growth this quarter Economic growth recovered somewhat in Western Europe, but slowed further in emerging Europe in Q2. Occupier activity has still been strong, but rates of rental growth slowed across the board... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
