India Chart Pack Equities continue to scale new highs Indian equities have continued to surge in August, with the benchmark Sensex stock index rising to a fresh record high of over 38,000 today. The recent strong performance in the Sensex compared to... 20th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is Italy really set for a fiscal splurge? Developments over the past few weeks have made it more likely that Italy’s Government will implement some form of fiscal stimulus in next year’s Budget. This is likely to cause bond yields to rise... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should we care about consumer confidence? Surveys of consumer confidence have been unusually strong in the past two years, but their usefulness as a guide to spending has deteriorated. What’s more, experience shows that both confidence and... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly No reprieve in sight There was no respite for commodities prices this week. Industrial commodities took their cues from the downbeat China activity data which fuelled concerns about demand. At the same time, a stronger... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Dollar’s rise won’t knock the Fed off course The near 6% rally in the dollar this year will trigger a slowdown in real export growth but, unlike the bigger dollar appreciation in 2014 and 2015, it won’t stop the Fed from continuing to hike... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Turkey’s crisis just one of many threats to EM assets The main factor weighing on EM assets recently has been worries about contagion from the crisis in Turkey. But even if these fears subside, there are plenty of other reasons to be pessimistic about... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Falls in commodity prices highlight external risks The declines in commodity prices this week following the crisis in Turkey highlighted the connections that make Canada more vulnerable than many advanced economies to developments elsewhere in the... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Third quarter shaping up better than expected We learned this week that much of the strength of consumption growth in the second quarter was sustained in July, suggesting that third quarter GDP growth will be stronger than we had anticipated. The... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s election campaign, Banxico’s prudence Campaigning for Brazil’s elections in October started this week, and market-friendly candidate Geraldo Alckmin seems to have positioned himself well to mount a challenge to the leading populists... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jul.) The jump in headline inflation to 3.0% in July, from June’s 2.5%, was partly due to rising energy prices but also appeared to reflect a pick-up in general inflationary pressures. We think that the... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Contagion from Italy likely to remain limited The sell-off in Italian bonds continued this week, and although we think that Italian yields have further to rise, we suspect that contagion will remain limited. Meanwhile, data released this week for... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jul.) Russian activity for July suggest that the economy continued to grow at a steady pace between Q2 and the start of Q3. Our Tracker is consistent with GDP growth of about 2.5% y/y and, while the Tracker... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Autumn Brexit deal less likely We have reassessed our view on the likely timing of a Brexit deal. Our working assumption is now that a deal is reached at the eleventh hour in Q1 2019, rather than in the autumn. However, we doubt... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What to make of Indonesia’s populist budget? Indonesia’s budget for next year envisages a big increase in cash handouts, and is clearly aimed at boosting support for the president ahead of next year’s general election. Worryingly, however, the... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Franc strength in focus, Norges Bank signals rate rise The further appreciation of the franc this week strengthens our view that the SNB will be very cautious about policy tightening, keeping rates on hold until 2020. Meanwhile, with inflationary... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
