Capital Daily Respite for the Turkish lira doesn’t mean relief for other EMs 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jul.) The more modest 0.3% increase in manufacturing output in July adds to the evidence that growth in the manufacturing sector has peaked. Even if a major escalation of tariff barriers is avoided, the... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America’s banks in good shape Turkey’s currency crisis, which could cause problems in its banking sector, has put the spotlight on EM banking vulnerabilities more generally. But while we had concerns about the health of Latin... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Drop in lumber price a small positive for housing starts There are a couple of reasons to hope that the drop in lumber prices over the past couple of months will be a positive for the housing market. First, it should encourage builders to start work on the... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) & Productivity (Q2) Despite the continued strength of retail sales in July, real consumption growth still looks set for a gradual slowdown in the third quarter, as the boost from the recent tax cuts starts to fade. 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy on the edge of recession in Q2 Q2 activity data were an improvement on Q1, when the economy contracted sharply. But a weak performance from key sectors has still dealt a blow to hopes that President Ramaphosa would boost growth... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update First signs of tariff effects As expected, the first effects of tariffs introduced by the US and some of its key trade partners are quite small. The main risk to the world economy is from a much bigger escalation of the trade war... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal’s banks to support investment-led growth Portugal’s banks have strengthened their balance sheets significantly and look set to support economic growth over the coming years. However, the already-high level of private sector debt is a concern... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Commercial property investment (Jul.) Investment activity in July softened sharply. It is too early to say what the weaker start to H2 means for the rest of the year. But, with interest from overseas investors returning, it seems unlikely... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jul.) As expected, CPI inflation ticked up for the first time since November last year in July. But as much of the rise was due to higher energy prices – which we doubt will be sustained – inflation should... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK House Price Index (Jun.) The subdued demand and mortgage lending environment is weighing on house prices. The official index reported that house price growth slowed to its lowest rate in almost 5 years in June. But with... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further tightening to come in Indonesia Today’s rate hike by Bank Indonesia (BI) comes against a backdrop of continued weak economic growth and subdued inflation, and demonstrates that BI’s main focus remains supporting the currency. With... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold bugs hold tight, brighter times ahead Given our view that the dollar will remain strong into 2019 and that growth in jewellery demand will continue to soften, we have recently revised down our end-2018 forecast for the price of gold. That... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Is the trade deficit becoming a cause for concern? The further widening in India’s merchandise trade deficit last month is likely to heighten concerns over the external position, particularly amid the broader deterioration in market sentiment towards... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Wage Price Index (Q2) We suspect that the continued stagnation in real wages in the second quarter will contribute to an easing in consumption growth this year, while the absence of a meaningful rise in nominal wage growth... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the warm weather spur spending? This summer has been the warmest in more than a decade, prompting speculation that the hot weather might have given an extra boost to consumer spending. In general, though, there is very little... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
