China Economics Weekly Property prices defy curbs, PBOC props up the RMB One bright spot in the generally downbeat economic data released this week was a further acceleration in property sales and prices last month. The pick-up was driven by China’s smaller cities, where... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia acts to support the rupiah, Korean job woes The authorities in Indonesia have redoubled their efforts to support the rupiah over the past week amid further downward pressure on EM currencies caused by the crisis in Turkey. Meanwhile, labour... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s easing cycle to resume next month The Egyptian central left interest rates on hold last night, but declining inflation means that the easing cycle is likely to resume at September’s MPC meeting. And we still think that interest rates... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Lira rebounds, Putin policy wobbles The Turkish lira has recovered lost ground since Monday, although policymakers have only done the bare minimum in response to the crisis. There have been some positive noises on fiscal policy, yet... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Rand worries, South Africa growth, Kenyan corruption Attention this week focused on the rand, which fell after the Turkish crisis spooked investors. This distracted attention from activity data suggesting that the country’s economy stagnated in Q2... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Italy really set for a fiscal splurge? Developments over the past few weeks have made it more likely that Italy’s Government will implement some form of fiscal stimulus in next year’s Budget. This is likely to cause bond yields to rise... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Turkish contagion, BoJ’s helping hand A former BoJ executive suggested that the Bank of Japan may tolerate 10-year yields rising to 0.4% even while keeping its official target at zero. This would lift trading income, increase returns on... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q2) Today’s figures show that Malaysia’s growth slowed sharply in Q2, partly reflecting the political transition following the May election. While consumer spending should continue to be buoyed by the... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Modicare unlikely to have significant impact Prime Minister Modi confirmed this week that his nationwide healthcare insurance scheme will be rolled out in September. Better healthcare provision could bring several benefits, from both an economic... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The dollar, wages and the inflation target The weakening in the Australian dollar to a 19-month low will provide a small boost to CPI inflation, but it won’t solve Australia’s persistent problem of low wage growth. While lowering the RBA’s... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Credibility is key for the RBI The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s August policy meeting – at which interest rates were hiked again – show that the MPC has placed great importance on preserving its recently-acquired credibility. With... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Spending growth remained subdued in Q2 The stronger-than-expected 0.7% monthly increase in retail sales volumes in July took the annual growth rate up from 2.9% to 3.5% and suggests that some recovery in consumer spending growth is in the... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Has copper further to fall? While investor sentiment is likely to remain the main driver of copper prices this year, we expect declining supply and growing demand from the green energy sector to give a boost to prices in 2019... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Bad loans on the rise Commercial banks’ non-performing loans (NPL) rose by RMB183bn in Q2, the biggest increase in over a decade. On paper, bad loans now make up just under 2% of all loans, the highest ratio since the... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Rising inflation means Fed unlikely to abandon plans With inflation trending higher and economic growth receiving a boost from this year’s fiscal stimulus, it is unlikely that the destabilising declines in a few emerging market currencies will force the... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
