Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

8th November 2023 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Costa Rica: bright outlook amid short term headwinds

Growth in Costa Rica is likely to slow by more in 2024 than officials currently expect amid weaker growth in the US, high commodity prices and tight fiscal policy. Further ahead, though, a burgeoning...

7th November 2023 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA’s next move will be down

As had been widely expected, the RBA handed down a 25bp rate hike at its meeting today. With the cash rate now at 4.35%, we believe the Bank’s tightening cycle is over. If we’re right that the...

7th November 2023 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Nov. 23)

7th November 2023 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Update

Central banks at a plateau, but what next and when?

We held a Drop-In last week to explain our thoughts on the latest policy communications from the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England following their decisions to leave rates on hold. (See the recording here...

6th November 2023 · 7 mins read

Europe Economics Focus

Riksbank “bailout” not as bad as it looks

The Riksbank’s request for a capital injection from the government is not a good look for an independent central bank. But its QE-related losses will be smaller than those of many other central banks...

3rd November 2023 · 14 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Fourth quarter bringing renewed slowdown

There is now mounting evidence that the economy is set for a renewed slowdown in the fourth quarter and that inflationary pressures from the labour market continue to ease. Although markets have...

3rd November 2023 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Brazil’s fiscal worries, Panama protests, Colombia rates

Fiscal risks have reared their head again in Brazil amid comments from President Lula that the government may no longer aim for a balanced primary budget in 2024. In the near-term, any fiscal slippage...

3rd November 2023 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Turkey’s central bank, Russian ruble, Israel’s offensive

Turkey's central bank governor delivered another convincing message at this week's Inflation Report briefing and suggested that further policy tightening will be delivered over the coming months...

3rd November 2023 · 9 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

ECB rate cuts still a long way off, fiscal rules debate

This week’s comments by ECB officials, as well as signs that underlying inflationary pressures in the euro-zone remain strong, support our view that the first ECB rate cut will only come in the second...

3rd November 2023 · 8 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Doth the Old Lady protest too much on rate cuts?

The surge in business insolvencies and slump in M4 money growth suggest that the Bank of England maybe protesting too much when it stressed this week that interest rate cuts are far away. But the Bank...

3rd November 2023 · 8 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Korea inflation concerns, rates to stay high in Pakistan

Headline inflation in Korea rose again last month, but with the core rate dropping back and central bank officials becoming increasingly concerned about the outlook for growth, we expect the BoK to...

3rd November 2023 · 7 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Tighter fiscal policy will weigh on activity next year

Even though the Bank of Japan de facto ended Yield Curve Control this week, the yen slid to a fresh one-year low against the dollar. And while it has gained some lost ground since then as US Treasury...

3rd November 2023 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Egypt Interest Rate Announcement (Nov. 2023)

The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left its overnight deposit rate at 19.25% today but, with pressure on the pound mounting and inflation still well above target, there’s a good chance that policymakers...

2nd November 2023 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Four things of note on the SNB this week

The SNB has been uncharacteristically active this week, making a string of announcements about monetary policy, its balance sheet, minimum reserve requirement and lessons from the Credit Suisse...

2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read