Global Economics Focus Is corporate greed to blame for high inflation? The surge in inflation in advanced economies has not been driven by a widening of firms’ profit margins. However, the fact that firms have been able to maintain profit margins in the face of rising... 29th June 2023 · 23 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Latest data point to a weak Q2 The latest monthly activity data suggest that most economies struggled in the second quarter of the year. While tourism arrivals are continuing to rise, there are signs in a few places that the... 29th June 2023 · 15 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany HICP (June) The increase in German headline and core inflation in June was mainly due to base effects. Euro-zone headline inflation probably still fell but the core rate is likely to have been little changed... 29th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: Is corporate greed to blame for high inflation? 1688652000 Consumer anger is mounting, executives are on the defensive and politicians are scrambling to respond.
Event Drop-In: Q3 Macro and Markets Outlook – From resilience to recession and beyond 1689084000 Will activity continue to hold up, or will monetary tightening take an ever greater toll on advanced economies?
Global Economics Update Hawkish tone at Sintra forum, particularly in Europe Central bankers have struck a hawkish tone at the ECB’s forum in Sintra this week, suggesting that rates haven’t yet peaked and cuts are not on the cards for some time. But there were some interesting... 29th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Risk premia fall back Risk premia have fallen across the region over the past month. In the region’s largest economy, Nigeria, that has come on the back of a marked policy shift since President Tinubu took office in late... 28th June 2023 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Falls in CEE interest rate expectations look overdone Investors generally revised down their interest rate expectations across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) over the past month, partly reflecting weaker-than-expected inflation prints and more dovish... 28th June 2023 · 11 mins read
China Economic Outlook Recovery needs help but isn’t dead yet China’s reopening recovery is struggling for momentum and quarter-on-quarter growth will be subdued for the rest of the year. But with policymakers likely to step up support soon, the economy should... 28th June 2023 · 18 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Italy HICP (June 2023) The drop in Italy’s headline and core inflation in June is encouraging. But the euro-zone core rate is unlikely to have declined significantly due to base effects related to the anniversary of the... 28th June 2023 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch Cash rate will peak at 4.85% by September While headline inflation plunged in May, we doubt that this will have assuaged the Bank’s concerns about soaring unit labour costs and rising inflation expectations. Accordingly, we’re sticking to our... 28th June 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (May) The sharp fall in inflation in May raises the risk that Reserve Bank of Australia will not raise any further at the upcoming meeting in July, but we still think that mounting upside risks to inflation... 28th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Recession or not, growth to disappoint Strong immigration and the turnaround in the housing market raise the chance that the economy will avoid recession but, with the Bank of Canada back in hiking mode, we still judge that GDP will... 27th June 2023 · 14 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Starting gun fires for the EM easing cycle Central bank meetings this month suggest that we’re now on the brink of an EM monetary easing cycle. In China, the Loan Prime Rates were lowered in response to flagging growth. And elsewhere, some... 27th June 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Strong currencies lend helping hand in inflation fight It’s been a good month for Latin American currencies, particularly the Brazilian real and the Colombian peso, which should help the disinflation process across the region. This is one reason behind... 27th June 2023 · 11 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (June 2023) & Copom Minutes The fall in Brazilian inflation to just 3.4% y/y in the first half of this month, coupled with the surprisingly dovish tilt on Copom shown in the minutes to the last meeting, have prompted us to... 27th June 2023 · 2 mins read
