Global Inflation Watch

2% core inflation by mid-2025 across DMs

With goods inflation vanquished, the last leg of disinflation in advanced economies must come from falling services inflation. After plateauing at the start of the year, services inflation has fallen...

24th October 2024 · 17 mins read

Global Economics Update

Weak PMIs make the case for faster rate cuts

The latest flash PMIs suggest that GDP growth got off to a weak start in Q4 in most major advanced economies. The surveys also imply a slowdown in both services activity and employment growth in...

24th October 2024 · 2 mins read

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (October 2024)

The latest activity data have brought further evidence that India’s economy has entered a softer patch. Coupled with the RBI's change in policy stance in its October meeting, this suggests that...

24th October 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (October 2024)

EM GDP growth picked up in Q3, but we expect growth to slow over the coming quarters - despite the recent stimulus announcements in China. The threat of more protectionist trade policy in the US poses...

24th October 2024 · 1 min read

Event

Global Drop-In: Is inflation still a threat?

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Renewed jitters in bond markets in part reflect a nagging sense that inflation isn’t whipped.

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Oct. 2024)

The fall in October’s composite flash PMI to an 11-month low suggests that real GDP growth, after what is shaping up to be a 0.2% q/q rise in Q3, continued to slow to a crawl at the start of Q4. This...

24th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil & Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Oct. 2024)

The fall in Mexican core services inflation in the first half of October in principle gives Banxico space to press ahead with another 25bp rate cut next month, but much will hinge on the outcome of...

24th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Flash PMIs (October 2024)

The low activity and price components of the flash PMIs for the euro-zone in October will strengthen the conviction of policymakers who think the ECB should step up the pace of rate cuts. We now think...

24th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep. '24)

The drop in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 3.8% y/y, in September, means that the SARB will almost certainly continue its easing cycle. The chances of a 50bp cut at its the next meeting...

23rd October 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Deflation risk to hang over the SNB

We expect Swiss inflation to average less than 0.5% next year and there are several key downside risks that could push inflation over the edge, namely lower oil prices than we expect, a stronger franc...

22nd October 2024 · 4 mins read

Event

ANZ Drop-In: Australian Q3 CPI and the timing of RBA rate cuts

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Australia is exceptional. Monetary easing cycles may be in full swing in many advanced economies, but the Reserve Bank shows no appetite to cut rates yet.

Emerging Europe Economics Focus

CEE: rapid wage growth to keep fuelling inflation

The persistent strength of wage growth in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) reflects continued tightness in labour markets and lingering effects from the 2022-23 inflation shock. While the latter...

21st October 2024 · 15 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Is Brazil’s economy overheating?

Concerns that Brazil’s economy is overheating are justified – to an extent. But the economy looks very different now compared with the last bout of overheating in the early 2010s. As a result, while...

21st October 2024 · 5 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

South Africa’s MPR, Nigeria’s policy shift

The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Review (MPR) released this week made clear that a recommitment to fiscal consolidation and structural reforms are key to creating extra space for...

18th October 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Brazil’s spending review, Argentina’s surplus, Chile rates

A proposed “spending review” in Brazil would, if approved by President Lula, ease fears about the state of the public finances and reduce the chances of aggressive rate hikes by the BCB. Elsewhere...

18th October 2024 · 5 mins read