President Trump’s statement this week that he plans tariffs on pharmaceuticals as well as motor vehicles is just the latest in a long list of protectionist threats. For now, we still think the risk to the European economy is probably lower than many anticipate, but policy uncertainty remains very high. Meanwhile, campaigning in the last week before Sunday’s federal election in Germany has focused on security. We expect to see a significant increase in defence spending over the coming year or two.
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