Latin America Economics Update Peru: slowing but still a regional outperformer Peru’s economy grew strongly in 2024 but we think that a combination of domestic and external headwinds will cause growth to slow by more than most expect over the coming years. But it is still likely... 17th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Japan Outlook: Tightening cycle has much further to run While trade tensions create downside risks, we expect GDP growth to be around trend this year. And following another strong showing in this year’s spring wage negotiations, wage growth will remain... 17th March 2025 · 18 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA’s Budget compromise, metals tariff concerns South Africa’s budget was finally delivered this week – but without the support of the ANC’s coalition partner, the DA. We suspect some form of compromise will be reached between the two parties to... 14th March 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Public sector productivity, the BoE and tariffs (again) The slump in overall productivity last year (and the ongoing weakness in public sector productivity) suggests that at least some of the weakness in activity is probably due to lower supply as well as... 14th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Copom’s conundrum, Argentina & the IMF Figures out this week underscored the strength of inflation in Brazil, but we think the weakness in the latest economic activity might just be enough to prompt Copom to make the 100bp hike (to 14.25%)... 14th March 2025 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: The tariffs will continue until sentiment improves Comments from President Donald Trump and his cabinet members in the past week suggest that neither an economic downturn nor a severe stock market decline will deter the administration from pursuing... 14th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: How big a boost from defence? Europe’s plans to increase its defence expenditure are still evolving, but based on what we know so far, we assume that for the euro-zone as a whole it will rise by around 0.5% of GDP between 2024 and... 14th March 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Three risks to the outlook The big takeaway from our India Economic Outlook published this week is that the economy appears to have bottomed out and, with the help of policy stimulus, growth should pick up further over the... 14th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update What to make of the slowdown in core inflation There are good reasons for the BoJ to strip out only fresh food rather than all food from its preferred measure of core inflation. To be sure, the fact that inflation excluding all food and energy has... 14th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s policy shift one year on Egyptian authorities are on the path towards restoring macroeconomic stability and received a strong endorsement from the IMF this week. The next – and potentially more complex – phase will be... 13th March 2025 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Feb. 2025) While final demand and core PPI both surprised to the downside in February, the price increases in the components which matter for the PCE deflator were on the whole hotter than we had anticipated. As... 13th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Mar. '25) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Rises in oil output from OPEC+, starting in April will gradually provide a... 13th March 2025 · 0 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Feb. 2025) The softer 0.23% m/m rise in core CPI in February is not as encouraging at it looks, as the components which feed into the Fed’s preferred PCE price index rose more sharply. While it will depend a lot... 12th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Feb. 2025) The sharp rise in Brazilian inflation to 5.1% y/y in February is likely to be followed by further increases in the coming months. Our base case is that next week’s Copom meeting will see the final... 12th March 2025 · 2 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Feb. 2025) The larger-than-expected fall in Indian headline consumer price inflation to below the RBI’s 4% target in February supports our view that the central bank will continue to loosen monetary policy over... 12th March 2025 · 2 mins read
