Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s defence spending to raise inflation, fiscal risks The 2025 draft budget recently outlined by Russia’s finance ministry shows that, rather than falling next year as initially planned, defence spending will rise by more than 20% to hit 6.2% of GDP... 3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Is Nigeria benefitting from a weaker naira? The Nigerian naira has fallen by more than 70% against the dollar since President Tinubu came to office, which has contributed to a surge in inflation that has weighed on economic growth. There are... 3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Headline inflation will be below 2% next year After falling to 1.8% in September, headline inflation in the euro-zone is almost certain to rise in the final few months of 2024. But we think that falling oil and natural gas prices will cause it to... 3rd October 2024 · 13 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Assessing the impact of the drought in Brazil Drought conditions across parts of Brazil are not yet at the stage where there is a threat of major disruptions to electricity supply, but it has already prompted electricity prices to be hiked and... 3rd October 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Sep.) The smaller-than-expected decline in Turkey’s headline rate to 49.4% y/y in September will be a disappointment to policymakers at the central bank, and supports our view that a monetary easing cycle... 3rd October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (September) The unexpectedly sharp fall in Switzerland’s headline and core inflation in September will cement the SNB’s dovish stance and supports our view that the Bank will cut its key policy rate by at least... 3rd October 2024 · 2 mins read
RBI Watch New-look MPC will wait until December to cut rates Little is known about the monetary policy views of the Reserve Bank of India’s incoming MPC members, but the fact that two of the committee’s doves have been replaced suggests that the repo rate will... 2nd October 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Trump tariffs may not be so bad for the UK One way the US election could influence the UK economy would be if Donald Trump won and delivered on his pledge to put a 10% tariff on UK exports being sent to the US. We suspect the impact on UK... 2nd October 2024 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will deliver a 50bp cut next Wednesday We expect the RBNZ to move its easing cycle up a gear and cut the Official Cash Rate by 50bp at its meeting next week. What’s more, given the Bank’s tendency to loosen policy aggressively, we think... 2nd October 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs signal marked slowdown in global industry In addition to indicating that goods price pressures eased in September, the latest batch of manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industry slowed sharply towards the end of Q3. But with interest... 1st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Deflation fears rising in Thailand Price pressures in Thailand remain very weak and the risks of a damaging period of deflation are growing. This is a big concern in a country with high levels of debt. Despite this, the central bank... 1st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (September 2024) The drop in euro-zone headline inflation below 2% in September should be sufficient to persuade the ECB to cut rates in October, even though services inflation remained high. 1st October 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Government’s fiscal plans unlikely to derail economy We are not expecting the planned fiscal policies of the government to derail the economy – we expect GDP to grow by 1.0% this year and by a decent 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026. Instead, the main... 1st October 2024 · 18 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia: key client questions answered We recently held a series of Asia-focussed roundtable discussions with clients in London, covering an array of topics including the impact of Fed easing, the US election, global fracturing and China’s... 1st October 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) The economy is stuck in a period of below-potential GDP growth, with previous interest rate hikes weighing on consumer spending and investment. This will keep downward pressure on core inflation... 30th September 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Sep. '24) Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated to reflect the latest data and developments in the region. Headline GDP growth in the Gulf economies will strengthen in 2025 as oil output... 30th September 2024 · 1 min read
