Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep. '24) The drop in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 3.8% y/y, in September, means that the SARB will almost certainly continue its easing cycle. The chances of a 50bp cut at its the next meeting... 23rd October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Deflation risk to hang over the SNB We expect Swiss inflation to average less than 0.5% next year and there are several key downside risks that could push inflation over the edge, namely lower oil prices than we expect, a stronger franc... 22nd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Event ANZ Drop-In: Australian Q3 CPI and the timing of RBA rate cuts 1730253600 Australia is exceptional. Monetary easing cycles may be in full swing in many advanced economies, but the Reserve Bank shows no appetite to cut rates yet.
Emerging Europe Economics Focus CEE: rapid wage growth to keep fuelling inflation The persistent strength of wage growth in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) reflects continued tightness in labour markets and lingering effects from the 2022-23 inflation shock. While the latter... 21st October 2024 · 15 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Is Brazil’s economy overheating? Concerns that Brazil’s economy is overheating are justified – to an extent. But the economy looks very different now compared with the last bout of overheating in the early 2010s. As a result, while... 21st October 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s MPR, Nigeria’s policy shift The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Review (MPR) released this week made clear that a recommitment to fiscal consolidation and structural reforms are key to creating extra space for... 18th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s spending review, Argentina’s surplus, Chile rates A proposed “spending review” in Brazil would, if approved by President Lula, ease fears about the state of the public finances and reduce the chances of aggressive rate hikes by the BCB. Elsewhere... 18th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Tight labour market to keep RBA on the sidelines Following yesterday's blockbuster jobs report, financial markets have come around to our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia won't loosen policy before the first half of next year. That's a stark... 18th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (Sep. 24) While the resumption of electricity subsidies resulted in a plunge in headline inflation in September, inflation excluding fresh food and energy rose to a three-month high and should remain around 2%... 18th October 2024 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Recessions fears continue to go unfounded, with the labour market still in good health after the strong September employment report. Prospects for October look weaker due to recent temporary... 17th October 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Some good news on underlying inflation The detailed breakdown of September’s inflation data, published this morning, showed that underlying price pressures softened slightly. We think that core inflation – and services inflation in... 17th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update China stimulus unlikely to have big spillovers to DMs We may learn more about the size and structure of China’s fiscal package over the next couple of weeks, but based on what we know the impact on advanced economies will probably be small. The bigger... 16th October 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Sep. 2024) The surprisingly large drop in CPI inflation in September increases the chances that the Bank of England will speed up the pace of interest rate cuts by reducing rates by 25 basis points (bps) at both... 16th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q3 2024) The weaker-than-expected Q3 CPI data reinforce our conviction that the RBNZ will loosen policy more aggressively than most are expecting. 15th October 2024 · 3 mins read
