Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (February) While we still think the SNB is most likely to err on the side of caution and cut its policy rate by a further 25bp on the 20 th March, higher than expected inflation in February increases the chance... 5th March 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response Initial thoughts on China’s NPC Chinese policymakers have stuck with an ambitious target for real GDP growth but have become more cautious on the outlook for nominal growth and inflation. And while they did deliver some increase in... 5th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Trump’s tariffs and the implications for Mexico The 25% tariff on all US imports from Mexico that came into force today will, if it stays in place, knock Mexico’s economy into recession in the coming quarters. A contraction in GDP this year of 1%... 4th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Tariffs risk plunging Canada into recession If the US tariffs remain in place, Canada will undoubtedly fall into recession. The limited decline in the loonie so far suggests markets are still pricing in a quick U-turn from the Trump... 4th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to higher goods price pressures The latest PMIs suggest that global industrial activity gained some momentum in February. But with more US tariffs on manufactured goods likely to come into force in the coming months, any rebound in... 3rd March 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (February 2025) February’s decline in headline inflation was encouraging because it was partly due to lower services inflation. We expect the headline rate to remain above 2% throughout most of this year but services... 3rd March 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) 3rd March 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb. 2025) The weaker-than-expected Turkish inflation figure for February, of 2.3% m/m, will provide some reassurance that the spike in January was a one-off. And it keeps the door open for the central bank to... 3rd March 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Peace talks, gas flows & defence spending President Putin this week described Moscow’s initial contact with the Trump administration as “inspiring a certain degree of hope” and, as we explained in an in-depth piece, an end to the war with... 28th February 2025 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Jan. 2025) The 0.28% m/m rise in core PCE prices in January was a big improvement on last year’s 0.5% m/m gain, but the 2.6% annual core inflation rate is still too hot for the Fed’s liking and, with... 28th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Germany defence fund, ECB cuts The special fund for defence proposed by Germany’s presumptive next Chancellor Friedrich Merz would secure funding for defence spending to rise from 2% of GDP to 3.5% and make budget negotiations a... 28th February 2025 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Another week of tariff threats, Brazil’s slowdown Mexico's government has pulled out all the stops to stave off the 25% US import tariff that is scheduled to come into effect next Tuesday and another 11th hour deal remains a possibility. But if the... 28th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany (states), France & Spain Flash Inflation (Feb.) National data published so far suggest that euro-zone headline inflation dropped back in February, and that core inflation might have finally started to come down more significantly. (Euro-zone data... 28th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Demographic crisis worsening as births keep falling Japan is now recording more than twice as many deaths as births, with that ratio only surpassed in war-ravaged Ukraine and celibate Holy See. While the number of employed people nonetheless hit a... 28th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA won’t drop its guard just yet At first glance, data released this week should give the RBA greater confidence that it has brought price pressures under control. Both headline and underlying inflation remained within the Bank's 2-3... 28th February 2025 · 5 mins read
