Europe Economics Update

ECB to cut deposit rate to just 1.5%

In light of the worsening outlook for economic growth and inflation in the euro-zone, we are making major downward revisions to our ECB interest rate forecast. We now think the Bank will implement...

28th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Argentina: default risks have eased, but not gone away

Investor sentiment towards Argentina has improved significantly in the past few months and it now looks like the government will probably be able to make the sovereign debt repayments that are due...

28th October 2024 · 5 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Nigeria Shell oil sale, SARB 25bp or 50bp cut next?

The Nigerian authorities rejection of Shell’s sale of its onshore oil business marked the latest attempt by a multinational to divest from Nigeria – and the prospect of lower foreign investment makes...

25th October 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Fiscal dominance, Mexico’s Trump risk, Uruguay votes

Hawkish comments from Brazil's central bank amid concerns that the economy is overheating and that the narrative that ‘fiscal dominance’ may take hold suggest that Copom is likely to step up the pace...

25th October 2024 · 8 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

ECB’s dovish shift, euro heading for parity?

ECB policymakers were out in force at the IMF meetings in Washington this week and many seemed willing to contemplate a 50bp rate cut in December. We now think that is the most likely decision and...

25th October 2024 · 11 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Election nailbiter

Polls suggest that Japan’s ruling party, the LDP, could lose its Lower House majority on Sunday for the first time since its brief stint out of power ended in 2012. As long as it was still able to...

25th October 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Governor Orr looks to temper rate cut expectations

At a recent event, RBNZ Governor Adrian emphasised the need to take a measured approach to policy easing given the "lingering inflation persistence on the domestic side". His remarks support our view...

25th October 2024 · 5 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Population decline will drag down GDP growth

The government’s new immigration plan implies that the population will decline by 0.2% in both 2025 and 2026, a huge shift from population growth of almost 3% over the past two years. That means GDP...

24th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Global Inflation Watch

2% core inflation by mid-2025 across DMs

With goods inflation vanquished, the last leg of disinflation in advanced economies must come from falling services inflation. After plateauing at the start of the year, services inflation has fallen...

24th October 2024 · 17 mins read

Global Economics Update

Weak PMIs make the case for faster rate cuts

The latest flash PMIs suggest that GDP growth got off to a weak start in Q4 in most major advanced economies. The surveys also imply a slowdown in both services activity and employment growth in...

24th October 2024 · 2 mins read

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (October 2024)

The latest activity data have brought further evidence that India’s economy has entered a softer patch. Coupled with the RBI's change in policy stance in its October meeting, this suggests that...

24th October 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (October 2024)

EM GDP growth picked up in Q3, but we expect growth to slow over the coming quarters - despite the recent stimulus announcements in China. The threat of more protectionist trade policy in the US poses...

24th October 2024 · 1 min read

Event

Global Drop-In: Is inflation still a threat?

1730386800

Renewed jitters in bond markets in part reflect a nagging sense that inflation isn’t whipped.

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Oct. 2024)

The fall in October’s composite flash PMI to an 11-month low suggests that real GDP growth, after what is shaping up to be a 0.2% q/q rise in Q3, continued to slow to a crawl at the start of Q4. This...

24th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil & Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Oct. 2024)

The fall in Mexican core services inflation in the first half of October in principle gives Banxico space to press ahead with another 25bp rate cut next month, but much will hinge on the outcome of...

24th October 2024 · 2 mins read