Latin America Economics Weekly Banxico hawks, Panama downgrade, Peru’s ‘Rolexgate’ The hawkish tone of the Banxico minutes released this week adds weight to our view that the easing cycle in Mexico will be very gradual and we think it's most likely that rates will be kept on hold at... 5th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Beware of the seasonal effects in inflation data Data released this week showed that the headline inflation rate in the euro-zone fell in March, to 2.4%, but that prices rose by 0.8% a monthly basis. However, the increase in prices was largely due... 5th April 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Upturn in money growth tallies with stronger activity Whether you’re a monetarist or not, it’s hard to ignore that the surge and plunge in the money supply preceded the surge and plunge in inflation. An imminent rebound in the money supply supports the... 5th April 2024 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Indian bulls rage while elephants go for a walk Positive news on India's economy continues to roll in and that is being reflected in the performance of the stock market. But amid the optimism, this week we published an in-depth report highlighting... 5th April 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update RBI policy pivot creeping closer The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected but the more interesting aspect was the slight dialling down of its hawkish rhetoric. With inflation grinding down towards the central... 5th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Firm population growth creates quandary for the RBA The minutes of the RBA’s March meeting revealed that the Board has now dropped its tightening bias. However, we suspect it will be a while before the Bank can be confident it has broken the back of... 5th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Ueda signals low bar for further rate hikes Bank of Japan Governor Ueda today indicated that it wouldn't take much for the Bank to hike interest rates further in the second half of the year. The extreme labour shortages coupled with persistent... 5th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update The economic effects of the drought in southern Africa El Niño is causing severe drought across much of southern Africa, which is likely to weigh on GDP, push up inflation and strain balance sheets. South Africa has also suffered water shortages, albeit... 4th April 2024 · 4 mins read
ECB Watch ECB preparing the ground for rate cuts in June Next week, we expect the ECB to signal clearly that as long as economic developments are broadly in line with official forecasts, it will cut interest rates in June. There is a decent case for a 50bp... 4th April 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (March) The further fall in Swiss inflation in March reinforces our view that the SNB will cut rates by a further 50bp this year. We have pencilled in the next rate cut for September, but there is a growing... 4th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Unemployment needs to reach 5% to cool inflation We believe that the “narrow path” of returning inflation to target while keeping unemployment below pre-pandemic levels is wishful thinking. The Reserve Bank of Australia won’t bring domestic cost... 4th April 2024 · 15 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Case for cuts strengthening While the recent inflation data have strengthened the case for interest rate cuts, we suspect that the Bank of Canada will need at least one more month of similar data before it loosens policy. The... 3rd April 2024 · 6 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Mar. 24) China’s economy continued to recover in the first months of the new year. And we think fiscal support will keep supporting growth in the near-term. That said, the property sector remains a drag on the... 3rd April 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: easing cycle entering a slower phase The more cautious tone of the Monetary Policy Report released by Chile’s central bank today confirms that policymakers have been spooked by the inflation surprises at the start of the year and has... 3rd April 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM easing cycle to broaden out GDP growth across most of the emerging world will fall short of consensus expectations this year. But there will be key bright spots such as India and Taiwan. While disinflation is likely to proceed... 3rd April 2024 · 26 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (March) The fall in both headline and core inflation in March suggests that the ECB is very likely to begin cutting interest rates in June. 3rd April 2024 · 2 mins read