China Rapid Response

China Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.)

Headline CPI inflation rose to a five-month high last month, driven by the lagged effect of stronger demand last quarter on the back of government efforts to boost consumption. But with the boost from...

10th February 2025 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

UK Weekly: Doubting the Bank’s higher inflation forecast

We doubt inflation will rise as far as the Bank of England’s new forecast suggests. The Bank's dovish tilt when it cut interest rates this week suggests it isn't putting too much weight on its own...

7th February 2025 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Emerging Europe Weekly: Hawks flying in CEE, growing pressure on the CBR?

Communications from central banks in Poland and Czechia this week were both on the hawkish side, but we expect a continued divergence in monetary policy over the coming year as interest rates remain...

7th February 2025 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Europe Weekly: Euro-zone wage growth set to ease significantly

Despite the focus on r* recently at the ECB, we think that wage inflation will be a more important guide for monetary policy. And the ECB’s wage tracker released earlier this week suggests that wage...

7th February 2025 · 8 mins read

India Economics Weekly

India Weekly: Budget, RBI, Delhi election, Modi-Trump meeting

A busy week for domestic policymaking began with the Finance Ministry showing fiscal restraint in the FY25/26 Union Budget and concluded with the RBI kicking off its easing cycle, with an election in...

7th February 2025 · 4 mins read

India Economics Update

New governor, new direction for the RBI

The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to cut the repo rate by 25bps today to 6.25% confirms that, under new leadership, its priorities have tilted from containing inflation to providing more...

7th February 2025 · 3 mins read

India Rapid Response

RBI Policy Announcement (Feb. 25)

The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to cut the repo rate by 25bps today to 6.25% confirms that, under new leadership, its priorities have tilted from containing inflation to providing more...

7th February 2025 · 2 mins read

Event

Drop In: Global Inflation Watch - How US and EU inflation paths are diverging

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Our latest Global Inflation Watch publication highlights a growing divergence between US and European inflation dynamics and the uncertainties facing the world e

Canada Chart Pack

Canada Chart Pack (Feb. 2025)

Our Canada Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The threat of US tariffs will hang over the economy for the foreseeable future, weighing on...

6th February 2025 · 1 min read

UK Economics Chart Pack

UK Economics Chart Pack (Feb. 2025)

Despite the recent weak news on activity and the uncertainty around the global outlook due to Trump’s US import tariffs, the stronger news on domestic price pressures means the Bank of England will...

5th February 2025 · 1 min read

Japan Economics Update

Japan’s rice inflation will plunge this year

The largest increase in rice prices on record has provided a sizeable boost to inflation in recent months but we expect rice inflation to slow sharply this year. While our forecast is a 0.6%-pt...

5th February 2025 · 3 mins read

Global Economics Update

Is this the start of a major central bank divergence?

We held an online Drop-In session last week to discuss the outlook for interest rates in major advanced economies as the Fed hit the pause button while the ECB cut again. (See a recording here .) The...

4th February 2025 · 7 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone HICP (January 2025)

January’s inflation data won’t change ECB policymakers’ minds about the likely near-term path for interest rates. The fact that services inflation remained high will mean that they will prefer to...

3rd February 2025 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Jan. 2025)

The sharp jump in the m/m rate of Turkish inflation, to 5.0%, was largely driven by one-off factors. And so long as the February CPI figures come in much softer (as we expect), we still think it’s...

3rd February 2025 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Emerging Europe Weekly: Putin’s response to Trump, CEE GDP, Turkish inflation

Comments from President Putin in an interview this week add to signs that efforts to reach a peace deal in Ukraine will be challenging. Elsewhere, the Q4 figures out of Central Europe point to a...

31st January 2025 · 8 mins read