UK Markets Chart Pack Growth fears drive gilt yields lower The further drop in gilt yields appears to have reflected declining expectations for GDP growth and related falls in long-term interest rate expectations, rather than fiscal developments. Indeed, the... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Farewell to the euro The euro-zone is slipping into a recession which we expect to be deep and prolonged and to result in the break-up of the single currency area. This will be a major drag on other European economies... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the euro? The euro fell below $1.27 against the dollar again on Wednesday – close to its lowest level since the autumn of 2010. We do not think its slide is over. Both the relative prospects for monetary policy... 11th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela: Devaluation may be delayed until after elections After the Venezuelan government devalued the official exchange rate peg against the dollar in January of both 2010 and 2011, speculation has been mounting that it will do so again soon. But while... 10th January 2012 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack US stock market resilience unlikely to last The US stock market recovered some poise in December. But while we do not expect equity prices to collapse in 2012, we think there are three reasons why they may continue to languish – our end-year... 4th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian forint falls to record low, but IMF help looks elusive With the forint falling to a record low against the euro today, the news from Hungary goes from bad to worse, coming on the back of the breakdown in negotiations with the IMF and EU last month, a... 4th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Gilt yields fall further despite growing fiscal fears UK gilt yields have continued to fall over the last month, despite growing fiscal fears and the limited boost to gilt prices provided so far by the Monetary Policy Committee’s further round of asset... 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Bond market implications of future economic divergence The US and European business cycles have become highly synchronised in recent decades. But this does not preclude significant economic divergence in response to major structural events. The last of... 6th December 2011 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack A chink of light at the end of a torrid month Growing stresses in the banking system fuelled by an escalation of the euro-zone crisis prompted the major central banks to announce measures aimed at enhancing their capacity to provide liquidity... 2nd December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Markets underestimate euro-zone threat Despite further large falls in gilt yields and little overall change in equity prices over the last quarter, we doubt that markets have fully appreciated the likely impact of the euro-zone debt crisis... 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What next for the Indian rupee? The fall in the rupee is mainly a result of global factors and is likely to be reversed when global sentiment improves. However, with the euro crisis set to drag on, that may be several months away. 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are markets starting to price in a euro break-up? Financial markets seem finally to have started to accept that the euro-zone might actually break up. Regular readers will not be surprised to hear that we think this process has considerably further... 16th November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will the IMF save the euro? Faced with the potential for a systemic financial crisis, the G20 group of leading nations may eventually agree a big increase in resources for the IMF. However, even if they do so, we doubt whether... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is gold a currency? The question of whether gold should be regarded as a “currency” might seem academic, but a discussion of the possible answers may shed some light on how best to analyse and forecast its price. Our... 9th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK recession risks weigh on markets While the twists and turns of the euro-zone debt crisis have continued to have a key bearing on UK market movements, markets also appear to be concerned that the UK economy is on the brink of... 9th November 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly The success (or otherwise) of yen intervention The intervention by the Japanese authorities last Monday has succeeded in weakening the yen and reducing exchange rate volatility, for now at least. The Ministry of Finance has a long history of... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
