China Economics Update Thaw in US-China relations unlikely to last Today’s economic discussions between China and the US are taking place in an atmosphere of unusual warmth. There are two obvious reasons – the fall in China’s trade surplus and the renminbi’s recent... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Does Emerging Europe need the euro? In contrast to the prevailing consensus, we believe that there is compelling evidence to suggest that the preservation of sovereign currencies – as opposed to euro-adoption – offers the best route to... 5th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the euro doomed to fail? The deepening problems in the euro-zone’s peripheral economies beg the question of whether the single currency union is doomed to fail. If failure means that it does not survive and prosper in its... 27th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the euro ever fall? The further rise in the euro against the US dollar, in the face of speculation that a euro-zone country might default on its debts in the foreseeable future, might seem to indicate that the single... 25th April 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook The end of QE2 – expect the unexpected As growth slows and inflation subsides, expectations of higher interest rates in the major developed economies should be scaled back significantly. The end of QE2 in the US should neither rattle... 20th April 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A policy shift on the renminbi China appears to be on the verge of allowing faster currency appreciation in response to inflation . This may not last long if inflation drops back in the second half of the year, as we expect. For... 19th April 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update People's Bank still intervening heavily China may have recorded a trade deficit last quarter but the pace of its intervention to hold down the renminbi barely slowed. Meanwhile, a rebound in lending last month is consistent with our view... 14th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Why are default concerns not hitting the euro? Increased concerns that one or more peripheral euro-zone countries may default on their debts have so far had remarkably little impact on the value of the euro. But there are reasons why the currency... 28th March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Economy fragile even before disaster struck Recent economic data releases have of course been overtaken by the tragedy of the earthquake and tsunami that hit Japan on 11 th March. This edition of our monthly chart book has therefore turned out... 24th March 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Tokyo calling Finance Ministers from the G7 are due to discuss the economic and market implications of the Japanese earthquake on a conference call beginning at 7am Tokyo time tomorrow. Given the scale of the... 17th March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Yen likely to weaken further in wake of disaster The economic and market impact of the terrible tragedy that has hit Japan will depend partly on the amount of the damage but also on who pays the bills. A large share of the cost will probably have to... 14th March 2011 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Dollar continues to languish Investors have become more convinced about the prospect of tighter monetary policy in Europe in response to upward pressure on headline inflation and some reasonably encouraging economic news. One... 4th March 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Is inflation eroding China’s competitive edge? The high level of consumer price inflation in China is a poor guide to how the competitiveness of its exporters is changing. Foodstuffs apart, factory gate prices are today rising only slightly faster... 22nd February 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Is Venezuela approaching crunch time? While the rest of Latin America is experiencing bumper capital inflows, Venezuela is gripped by a dollar drought. With President Chavez seeking re-election in December 2012, there is a growing risk... 17th February 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Could SDRs challenge the dollar? When G20 Finance Ministers hold their first meeting of the year this weekend, one of the issues on the agenda will be reform of the International Monetary System, including a proposal to promote the... 17th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How quickly is Russia moving towards a free float? The pace at which Russian monetary policy is shifting from a regime centred on targeting the exchange rate to a regime based on targeting inflation remains unclear, but our calculations of FX... 9th February 2011 · 1 min read
