Europe Economics Focus Could Greece take advantage of a return to the drachma? The view of some commentators that a return to the drachma would be of little benefit to Greece because “it does not export much” is wide of the mark. Not only would an exit and devaluation improve... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update IMF deal needed to stop the rot in Egypt Today’s data from the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) showing that foreign currency reserves fell in September highlight the importance of an IMF backstop when talks take place at the end of this month. 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African rand still has further to fall The South African rand has sold-off sharply in the past few days, but we think a combination of domestic political unrest, a challenging external environment, and a widening current account deficit... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt and the thorny issue of devaluation Egypt’s talks with the IMF over a financing package are set to get underway this month. There are a number of major stumbling blocks, the most contentious of which is whether Egypt is forced to... 5th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (Sep.) The combination of an improvement in political conditions and rising hopes of an IMF deal has boosted bond and equity markets in Egypt. But at the same time, the return of foreign investors will... 28th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What are the lessons of historical devaluations for Greece? The experience of economies which have undergone major currency depreciations in the past suggests that a return to the drachma would kick start a Greek economic recovery. Provided that Greece adopted... 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar rally looks overdone The recent surge in the Canadian dollar coincides neatly with the general rally in equity and commodity markets. The economic fundamentals that would typically justify this movement, however, are... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Safe-haven demand for UK assets eases The European Central Bank’s proclamation that it is prepared to buy “unlimited” quantities of peripheral euro-zone government bonds has prompted safe-haven demand for gilts to ease and sterling to... 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update China’s smaller savings surplus little threat to Treasuries One popular misconception is that China’s reinvestment of its “surplus” savings has directly depressed long-term US Treasury yields. If this were true, why have yields remained so low in recent years... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Prospect of QE3 whets investors' appetite The prospect of further unconventional policy stimulus from the Fed and a summer lull in the euro-zone crisis supported risky assets in August. Nonetheless, we expect any extra boost to prices from... 3rd September 2012 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Bond purchases on hold, but other measures possible We expect the ECB to disappoint markets this week with its plans for peripheral government bond purchases. President Mario Draghi is likely to state that such purchases will be limited and that they... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish monetary shift signals bank FX concerns In the past few months, the Turkish central bank has added to its policy toolkit by allowing banks to hold foreign currencies and gold in place of lira as required reserves for their lira liabilities... 29th August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Talk of return to Gold Standard to come to nothing Reports that the Republican Party will call for the establishment of a commission to examine the case for restoring the link between the dollar and gold may be another positive for the price of the... 24th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Lacklustre growth to weigh on UK assets While UK equity and gilt prices have both increased over the last few months, we doubt that further significant price rises are likely over the coming quarters. Equities seem destined to struggle as... 23rd August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Dragged down by weaker global economy The next 12 months are shaping up to be the most challenging since the 2008-09 global financial crisis for Latin America. A combination of weaker external demand, falling commodity prices and tighter... 21st August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Next big move for the ruble will be down The ruble has been on a rollercoaster ride of late, falling by 10% against its dollar/euro basket in May, before clawing back around 5% of its losses over the past few weeks. If nothing else, this... 17th August 2012 · 1 min read
