Latin America Economics Update What should we make of the real’s fall from grace? Fears that the slump in the Brazilian real will lead to a further rise in inflation look greatly exaggerated. There is almost no relationship between fluctuations in the currency and inflation, while... 23rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The big picture on emerging market currencies The recent sharp falls in emerging market (EM) currencies against the US dollar do not reflect fundamental shifts in exchange rate policy in these countries. Instead the main driver is renewed demand... 22nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New market forecasts – even lower Treasury yields ahead We have reviewed our projections for currency, government bond and stock markets. The new market numbers are presented in the table on the next page. There are two main changes. First, we are revising... 14th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB’s action won’t rescue the Swiss economy Today’s decision by the Swiss National Bank to apply a limit of 1.20 per euro to the franc is a bold move which it has pledged to defend at all costs. But in the end, there may be limits to how many... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Swiss franc peg vs. euro provides only qualified relief The Swiss National Bank’s decision to effectively peg the Swiss franc to the euro will provide some qualified relief to Croatia, Hungary and Poland, which have significant amounts of Swiss franc debt... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will Japan follow Switzerland and cap the yen? The yen initially fell against the dollar following the Swiss move to set a formal limit on the strength of the franc. As it happens, we do not think that the authorities in Tokyo are ready to do the... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB’s action won’t rescue the Swiss economy Today’s decision by the Swiss National Bank to apply a limit of 1.20 per euro to the franc is a bold move which it has pledged to defend at all costs. But in the end, there may be limits to how many... 6th September 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Defying gravity The slowdown in the global economy and nervousness in financial markets undermined the prices of industrial metals and oil in August. Admittedly, these prices ended the month on a more positive note... 3rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Two (very different) scenarios for the yen Japan’s government appears to have changed course and dropped its attempt to weaken the yen in favour of mitigating the impact of a strong currency. For now we are sticking to our view that the yen... 25th August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What will Japan's policymakers do next? Japan’s policymakers have sat on their hands and watched the yen climb to new highs since intervening in foreign exchange markets earlier this month. We expect recent financial market turmoil to be... 23rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Does rising credit risk pose a threat to Bunds? The cost of insuring against a default by the German government for five years has nearly doubled since early July and now exceeds the cost of insuring against a default by the UK government for the... 18th August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Still in the grip of deflation The revision to the CPI base-year resulted in a marked downward revision to inflation, showing clearly that Japan is still in the grip of deflation. Although the Bank of Japan has only recently... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Super-strong Swiss franc hits Hungary & Poland The latest surge in the Swiss franc has turned the spotlight once again on Emerging Europe’s foreign currency debt problem. As it happens, only Hungary, Poland and Croatia have significant amounts of... 12th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What more can the SNB do? The Swiss National Bank has not exhausted all options to stem the franc’s appreciation and might yet try capital controls or direct intervention in currency markets. But internationally co-ordinated... 12th August 2011 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update What more can the SNB do? The Swiss National Bank has not exhausted all options to stem the franc’s appreciation and might yet try capital controls or direct intervention in currency markets. But internationally co-ordinated... 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Loss of US AAA rating shouldn't be a complete disaster The news that S&P finally pulled the trigger by cutting America's long-term credit rating from AAA to AA+ will surely rock the financial markets when they open on Monday. But any spike in Treasury... 6th August 2011 · 1 min read
