Japan Economics Update Yen intervention could be a one day wonder Today’s unilateral intervention has only succeeded in weakening the yen a little (from around 75.6 per dollar to 79.5, then back to 77.9) and is unlikely to be enough to turn the tide. Meanwhile, the... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How vulnerable is Asia to another financial crisis? Despite the deal agreed by European leaders last week, we are far from sanguine about prospects for the euro-zone and expect further turmoil in global financial markets. In the event of another... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Too little, too late We do not expect the recent respite for risky assets to last. The outlook for the advanced economies is bleak and the growth rate of corporate earnings is set to slow. Investors’ enthusiasm for risk... 29th October 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ expands asset purchases but needs to do more Currency markets brushed off the latest expansion to the Bank of Japan’s asset purchase scheme, sending the yen back through 76 to the dollar shortly after the announcement. Although we think it... 28th October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Yen to strengthen to 60 against the dollar The resilience of the yen and a reassessment of the relative strengths of the various pressures on the Japanese currency have prompted us to change the direction of our forecasts. We now expect the... 27th October 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Dollar gains to add to downward pressures on prices The prospect of further strength in the US dollar is a clear and present danger to commodity prices of all types. But if the main driver is worries about sovereign debt, gold should still outperform. 22nd October 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America’s currencies still look overvalued Despite a sell-off over the past couple of months, various measures suggest that Latin America’s currencies – with the exception of the Mexican peso – are still stronger than fundamentals might... 19th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What will weaker currencies mean for inflation? Fears that the recent sell-off in Emerging Europe’s currencies might lead to a pick-up in inflation and put pressure on policymakers to raise interest rates are overstated. Nevertheless, weaker... 19th October 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Poor demand prospects mean prices have further to fall The sharp falls in commodity prices in the third quarter illustrate the importance of macroeconomic and financial market factors on the demand side, which once again have more than offset the... 19th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can the euro survive the sovereign debt crisis? Policymakers’ latest plans to tackle the euro-zone debt crisis are unlikely to address the region’s fundamental problems and secure the future of the single currency. We still doubt that the euro will... 19th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What next for the ruble? Russian markets have been hit hard during the recent financial market turmoil: the RTS equity index was down by 18% in September and the ruble lost 10% against the dollar. While the currency and... 14th October 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currency depreciation unlikely to delay interest rate cuts for long We doubt that the recent sell-off of currencies in Latin America will cause inflation to rise significantly over the coming months. Indeed, with economic activity set to slow over the coming months... 13th October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Euro still likely to slide further The dollar’s recovery against the euro may have paused but the outlook for the European single currency remains poor. The relative prospects for monetary policy and the risks of a renewed escalation... 12th October 2011 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Market turmoil finally gives the dollar a lift The dollar finally got a big boost in September from the euro-zone’s intensifying debt crisis and gloomy news on the global economy. The Fed’s major trade-weighted dollar index rose by nearly 6%... 5th October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Just how safe is the yen? As the euro-zone debt crisis continues to send shockwaves through the financial markets, it is ironic that the best performing of the world’s major currencies so far this year has been the yen. After... 28th September 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Gold still deserves “safe haven” status The recent sharp falls in the dollar price of gold have led some to question its status as a refuge from problems elsewhere, especially now that the US currency is strengthening across the board... 24th September 2011 · 1 min read
