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Outlook for the Turkish lira still clouded by external risks

Concerns are mounting that Turkey will be faced with a fresh wave of “hot” capital inflows. As it happens, we don’t think this is a credible threat – we expect a fresh escalation of the euro-crisis to cause capital inflows to dry up (again). But it is the key issue for policymakers at the moment and is likely to result in interest rate cuts over the coming months to reduce the carry on the lira.

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