China Economics Update How long will the Hong Kong peg last? A provocative new paper by Joseph Yam, the former head of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, calling for the territory to review its currency peg to the US dollar has once again raised questions over... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Latvia a model for the euro-zone’s periphery? It is probably too soon to judge whether or not Latvia’s internal devaluation has been a success. But the early signs do not suggest that it provides a model for the euro-zone’s crisis-hit periphery... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesian rupiah has further to fall The Indonesian rupiah has been one of the worst performing currencies in emerging Asia so far this year. We think an intensification of the euro-zone crisis, a worsening of the trade balance, rising... 7th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New market forecasts We have revised some of our key market forecasts for government bonds, equities, commodities and currencies. The new forecasts are presented in the table at the bottom of this page. The major changes... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack High-grade bond yields plunge to record lows The 10-year US Treasury yield fell by more than 35bp in May, hitting a record low of less than 1.6% as investors sought refuge in high-grade government bonds. The main trigger for the rally was a... 1st June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook UK markets still underestimate euro-zone risks The euro-zone debt crisis has already had a significant impact on UK markets. Even so, we doubt that markets have fully priced in the likely economic effects that would stem from the partial breakup... 1st June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Currencies and equities fall sharply, further falls likely Following a strong start to the year, most Asian currencies and equities fell sharply in May. The main reason is that renewed concerns over the euro-zone’s future brought a return in global risk... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Is Argentina headed for a fresh currency crisis? Argentina’s ample foreign reserves and tight capital controls mean that the government will not be forced into allowing the peso to devalue sharply in the near-term. That said, the current managed... 30th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are historical monetary break-ups relevant to the euro-zone? The break-up of the euro-zone would be an unprecedented event because the euro itself is unique. But there are still some useful lessons to be learnt from previous monetary splits. 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand dollar rally unlikely to last The New Zealand dollar has been one of Asia’s worst-hit currencies since fears of a euro-zone breakup escalated. The currency has regained some ground in recent days and most analysts expect it to... 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack From currency war to currency rout Financial markets across the whole of Latin America have been hammered over the past month by a euro-zone related flight to safety but amid the sell-off the collapse in the Brazilian real stands out... 25th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The euro has yet to price in a break-up Even after the recent falls, the euro exchange rate does not appear to incorporate a significant “break-up premium”. As such, we see scope for further considerable declines as the crisis continues. 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can Greece survive outside the euro-zone? Many commentators argue that even though Greece might benefit from leaving the euro-zone in the long run, an immediate exit would result in the Government running out of money with potentially... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Weak zloty a cause for concern, but shouldn’t justify rate hikes The recent sell-off in the zloty will make it harder for the Polish government to keep public debt from breaching constitutionally mandated ceilings. In the extreme, policymakers face the risk of... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Forint slump to trigger renewed talk of IMF deal The latest slump in the Hungarian forint has taken the currency to below 300/€ – the rate that, on past form at least, has triggered a response from the authorities. This time around, the response... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The consequences of a euro-zone break-up Markets have come around to our long-held view that some form of euro-zone break-up is likely, but opinion remains divided on the likely economic and financial fall-out. While even a limited and well... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
