Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Export split reinforces concerns of “currency wars” The continued weakness of exports from commodity producers in the emerging world will add further fuel to the debate over “currency wars”. By contrast, exports from manufacturing-focused economies in... 15th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt's capital controls could be a further drag on growth The depreciation of the Egyptian pound has slowed in recent weeks, but only because of a tightening of capital controls. If these remain in place for any length of time, they could present another... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine peso falls through 5/US$ and set to keep going The Argentine peso fell to a record low of 5/US$ today, however most small businesses and consumers are forced to access dollars at an even weaker rate on the black market. Going forward, we expect... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A sceptical view on "currency wars" Talk of “currency wars” continues to dominate the headlines despite the efforts of the G7. Indeed, the latest official comments appear to have added to the confusion. This Update summarises the six... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latest devaluation won't cure Venezuela's economic ills The Venezuelan authorities bowed to the inevitable late on Friday and devalued the bolivar fuerte. Although this should help to ease some of the strains in the public finances, it won’t do much to... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Talk of currency wars to dominate G20 meeting Next week’s G20 gathering in Moscow will be overshadowed by talk of currency wars. But in our view, competitive exchange rate devaluations do not pose a significant threat to the global recovery. 8th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lower inflation is key to Turkish competitiveness The appreciation of Turkey’s real exchange rate has raised speculation that monetary policy could be loosened to weaken the lira. However, the most effective way to improve Turkey’s export... 8th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets rally as euro-zone fears recede This is the first edition of our new monthly Emerging Europe Markets Monitor. The purpose of this publication is to analyse the developments in local markets over the past month and give an update on... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Yen looks set for a correction The yen has already fallen to within touching distance of our mid-year forecast of 95 to the dollar, while the surge in the Nikkei has left it only a little short of our target of 11,600. However... 6th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The strong euro won’t be all bad - just mostly The rise in the euro is not unambiguously bad for the euro-zone economy. But the negatives are likely to outweigh the positives. 6th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt's FX reserves fall below "critical" threshold The fall in Egypt’s FX reserves last month underlines the limited firepower that the authorities have to stem depreciation pressures on the pound. We think the pound could fall a further 10% or so... 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Why are China's banks stockpiling foreign exchange? With the People’s Bank determined to limit renminbi appreciation but reluctant to add to its foreign currency reserves, China’s commercial banks have taken on the role of the economy’s foreign... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Is yen weakness a threat to emerging Asia? The yen has significantly weakened against Asian currencies in the last few months. Given the similarity of many of their exports, Korean exporters look most vulnerable to a depreciating yen. However... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook A see-saw year ahead for risky assets We now think risky assets will generally fare quite well in the first half of 2013, as tension in the euro-zone continues to ease and the Fed expands its balance sheet further. We expect these factors... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (Jan.) The Egyptian pound has fallen sharply over the past month after the Central Bank of Egypt loosened its grip on the currency. We think the pound could fall by a further 10-15% to around 7.5/US$... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can exporters shrug off the euro's rise? The euro’s appreciation over recent months may not necessarily prove disastrous for exporters. But with domestic demand likely to continue to contract, the strong currency reduces the chances of the... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
