DM Markets Chart Pack US Treasury yields plummet despite debt spat The 10-year US Treasury yield has fallen very sharply since the end of the second quarter. The principal reason for the drop appears to be a reassessment of the prospects for monetary policy in light... 5th August 2011 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB action unlikely to stem the franc’s rise The Swiss National Bank’s decision to cut interest rates to almost zero and embark on a renewed bout of quantitative easing to stem the franc’s appreciation looks pretty bold. But we still think that... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What would a US downgrade mean for the dollar? The dollar is initially likely to weaken further if the US loses its AAA credit rating. But we would still expect the US currency to rebound and end the year higher against the euro, sterling and yen. 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What if the US loses its AAA rating? A downgrade of US government debt would not necessarily be disastrous for Treasuries or the dollar, at least once the dust settled. However, it would be the starkest warning yet that the fall-out from... 23rd July 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the Swiss franc? Most of the world’s major “paper” currencies have fallen out of favour. But the Swiss franc is an exception to the rule. It has even outperformed gold since the start of the year. We expect the upward... 20th July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia’s currency appreciation likely to slow Emerging Asia’s currencies have strengthened against the US dollar so far this year in large part because local policymakers have allowed appreciation to combat inflation. However, with inflation set... 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fresh controls unlikely to signal end of Brazil’s ‘currency war’ News that Brazil is planning a range of new measures to stem the rise in the real hit the currency yesterday but any such action is unlikely to have a lasting impact. 7th July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook End of Asia’s policy tightening in sight Policy rates across Emerging Asia are likely to rise further towards pre-crisis levels in the coming months. However,tightening cycles should end next year with rates below their 2008 peaks. Most... 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Can China solve the euro-zone’s problems? Despite warm words of support from China’s leaders, there is no reason to believe that China has the ability to solve the euro-zone’s debt crisis. We estimate that China has already bought more than... 28th June 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Would Chinese reserve diversification hurt the dollar? Recent data provide tentative evidence that China’s accumulation of foreign exchange reserves has significantly outpaced her net purchases of US government securities in recent months. This... 23rd June 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Does the Gulf's foreign exchange policy still makes sense? Concerns that the dollar is set to weaken further has reignited the debate on the dollar peg in the Gulf, which if abandoned would allow the region’s central banks to take control of monetary policy... 18th June 2011 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB strikes a dovish tone As expected, the Swiss National Bank left its interest rate target unchanged at today’s meeting. With the Bank striking a slightly more downbeat tone in its statement and the Swiss franc’s strength... 16th June 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for the US dollar We have revised our expectation of a large rebound in the value of the dollar. Although we still think some appreciation against the other “majors” is likely by the end of next year, we now forecast... 16th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro's unwanted strength heightens break-up dangers Our expectation that the euro would fall against the US dollar as the fiscal crisis deepened has not been borne out and we now expect the euro to stay higher for longer. But this unwanted strength... 16th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can strong growth save the euro? The recent strength of the euro-zone economy has masked widening divergences within the region. And with even in the core economies set to slow over the coming quarters, it would be wrong to expect... 31st May 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Yen likely to weaken sharply again The renewed appreciation of the yen over the past month has encouraged speculation that the Japanese currency will revisit the post-war record intraday high of 76.25 to the dollar seen on 17th March... 11th May 2011 · 1 min read
