Europe Economics Weekly Weaker currency won’t bail out the euro-zone The drop in the euro exchange rate to its most competitive trade-weighted level in over nine years might appear to improve the euro-zone’s growth prospects and reduce the need for the uncompetitive... 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Gilt yields stay low as QE3 begins UK government bond yields and equity prices have diverged over the last month. The Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC’s) decision to resume quantitative easing (QE) appears to explain their decoupling... 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine: financing risks cloud the outlook With the temporary boost to consumer spending from the Euro 2012 Football Championship now over, Ukraine has to get back to reality. Significant external financing needs continue to cast a long shadow... 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Little respite in sight for the euro The euro’s slide against the dollar is unlikely to end any time soon. Admittedly, the exchange rate is already at a two year low. But an escalation of the euro-zone crisis and a deep recession should... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: drifting towards a two-tier peso? Argentina’s tightly managed exchange rate is not compatible with the expansive macro policies that have driven inflation up to double-digit levels. Nonetheless, the authorities seem determined to have... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Pressures on the Egyptian pound mount Provisional data from the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) showing no improvement in foreign currency reserves in June – as had been hoped – will keep pressure on the pound. With political conditions still... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Could Greece finance itself after a euro-zone exit? We have long argued that it may be in the best interests of Greece to leave the euro-zone. And while some commentators have suggested that Greece would benefit from waiting until it can fully cover... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack German Bunds start to lose their shine The yield on ten year German Bunds rose by around 30bp in June, despite the fact that the yield on ten year US Treasuries barely increased. The rise in the ten year Bund yield may have partly... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Which debts would be redenominated after euro break-up? The improvement in sentiment towards the euro-zone following last week’s EU summit is, in our view, likely to prove short-lived. Indeed, we still expect the resolution to the euro-zone crisis to... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asian Financial Crisis – 15 years on Monday 2nd July marks the 15-year anniversary of the start of the Asian Financial Crisis. In retrospect, the region weathered the crisis and its aftermath well. However, trend growth has slowed... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Weaker Chinese demand starting to weigh on exports There are growing signs that falling commodity prices and weaker demand from China are starting to take their toll on the economies of Latin America. In those countries that are most dependent on... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Canadian dollar likely to fall further The recent depreciation of the Canadian dollar is likely to continue this year and next. Our reasons for thinking so are the prospects of further declines in commodity prices and lower expectations... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the Aussie dollar? The Australian dollar has rebounded in June despite the ongoing slide in commodity prices. The currency’s recovery has probably been due to a subtle shift in investors’ expectations about the relative... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Drop in gilt yields reflects more than safe-haven demand The further rally in UK government bonds over the last month – resulting in yields reaching new record lows – has mainly reflected an increase in global demand for safe-havens in the wake of the... 14th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Intervention unlikely to significantly weaken peso Increased intervention by the Colombian authorities in the foreign exchange market may halt the appreciation of the peso, but it is unlikely to significantly weaken it. Instead, a drop in commodity... 14th June 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (Jun.) The escalation in the euro-zone crisis and recent falls in the oil price have weighed heavily on the Arab region’s equity markets over the past month. Indeed, even if Dubai and Qatar are upgraded to... 14th June 2012 · 1 min read
