The "economic" trade deal that Starmer and Trump talked about at the White House this week may mean the UK avoids any new tariffs on its exports to the US. But since we didn't think such tariffs would reduce UK GDP much, the possibility that they are not imposed does not dramatically improve the UK's economic outlook. US tariffs on other countries will still contribute to subdued overseas demand for the UK's exports. And the bigger restraint on UK GDP growth this year will be the weakness of the domestic economy stemming from the rises in business taxes.
We’re hosting 20-minute online briefings to discuss the UK housing market on 5th March (register here), to preview the Chancellor's fiscal update on 12th March (register here) and to respond to the fiscal update hours after it happens on 26th March (register here).
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