UK Economics
Our UK economics coverage provides detailed analysis, independent forecasts, and economic outlooks for the UK economy and financial markets. We offer rapid responses to new data and developments, along with in-depth coverage of key themes, current trends, and future developments.
This service provides detailed analysis and independent forecasts for the UK economy and financial markets, offering both rapid responses to new data and developments, and more in-depth coverage of key themes, current trends, and future developments.
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Key Forecasts
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Main Economic & Market Forecasts |
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|
Latest |
Q4 2024 |
Q1 2025 |
Q2 2025 |
Q3 2025 |
Q4 2025 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
|
|
GDP (%q/q/y/y) |
0.1(1.0) |
0.4(1.7) |
0.6(1.6) |
0.5(1.6) |
0.5(2.0) |
0.4(2.0) |
0.9 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
|
CPI Inflation (%) |
2.3 (Oct) |
2.5 |
2.7 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
1.8 |
2.6 |
2.3 |
1.6 |
|
Unemp Rate (%) |
4.3 (Sep) |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.2 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
|
Bank Rate* (%) |
4.75 |
4.75 |
4.50 |
4.25 |
4.00 |
3.75 |
4.75 |
3.75 |
3.50 |
|
QE Stock* (£bn) |
654 |
650 |
620 |
585 |
568 |
555 |
650 |
555 |
510 |
|
10-yr Gilt* (%) |
4.40 |
4.50 |
4.35 |
4.25 |
4.10 |
4.00 |
4.50 |
4.00 |
3.75 |
|
$/£* |
1.25 |
1.28 |
1.26 |
1.24 |
1.22 |
1.20 |
1.28 |
1.20 |
1.20 |
|
€/£* |
1.21 |
1.22 |
1.21 |
1.21 |
1.20 |
1.20 |
1.22 |
1.20 |
1.20 |
|
Sources: Capital Economics, LSEG Data & Analytics. * End period. |
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All UK Economics coverage
Featured Economists
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Paul Dales
Chief UK Economist
Paul Dales is our Chief UK Economist, with overall responsibility for our UK Economics and UK Markets services. Paul joined Capital Economics soon after it was founded in 1999 and has previously been our Chief Australia & New Zealand Economist and Senior US Economist. In 2022, he led the team that was named UK Economics Forecaster of the Year by the Sunday Times. In 2016, the Australian Financial Review judged him to be Australia’s economist of the year as “he made all the right calls in a market that most chief economists found hard to read”. In 2011, he was named Bloomberg’s US house price forecaster of the year. And in 2010, he was part of the US team that was named Wall Street Journal US forecaster of the year. Paul regularly writes articles for the London Evening Standard and frequently appears on TV and radio. He holds degrees in Banking & Finance and Economics from Loughborough and London universities and the UK FSA recognised Securities Institute Diploma.
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Ruth Gregory
Deputy Chief UK Economist
Ruth Gregory is Capital Economics' Deputy Chief UK Economist. She joined Capital Economics in 2015 and has 15 years’ experience as a professional economist analysing the UK economy. Prior to joining Capital Economics, Ruth worked as a UK economist at the Office for Budget Responsibility and HM Treasury. In 2022, she was part of the team at Capital Economics named UK Economics Forecaster of the Year by the Sunday Times. Ruth is a member of the Retail Think Tank which serves to provide a balanced, considered and unbiased view on what is happening in the retail sector and to develop thought leadership on the key areas influencing the future of retailing in the UK. She has also previously been a member of the Judging Panel for the Society of Professional Economists Rybczynski Prize competition. Ruth regularly presents to clients on the UK economic and financial market outlook. She comments on economic developments in the media and appears regularly on TV and radio. She holds a degree in Economics from the University of Bath.
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Ashley Webb
UK Economist
Ashley Webb is a UK Economist at Capital Economics. Ashley joined Capital Economics in 2022 from HM Treasury, where he worked on UK macroeconomic and fiscal policy. He holds an MSc in Economics from the University of Edinburgh and a BSc in Economics from the University of Plymouth.
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Alex Kerr
UK Economist
Alex joined Capital Economics in September 2022 and is currently a UK Economist, contributing to our UK Economics and UK Housing services. Alex holds undergraduate and postgraduate degrees in Economics from the University of Bath, during which he completed a placement in the macroeconomic research team at AXA Investment Managers.
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Elias Hilmer
Assistant Economist
Elias joined Capital Economics in September 2023 as an Assistant Economist on the graduate training scheme. He currently works on our Emerging Markets team. Elias holds a MSc in International Political Economy from the LSE, a MSc in Public Economics from the Free University of Berlin and a BSc in Economics and Social Sciences from the University of Cologne (Germany).