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Our UK economics coverage provides detailed analysis, independent forecasts, and economic outlooks for the UK economy and financial markets. We offer rapid responses to new data and developments, along with in-depth coverage of key themes, current trends, and future developments.

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This service provides detailed analysis and independent forecasts for the UK economy and financial markets, offering both rapid responses to new data and developments, and more in-depth coverage of key themes, current trends, and future developments.

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Key Forecasts

Main Economic & Market Forecasts

Latest

Q4 2024

Q1 2025

Q2 2025

Q3 2025

Q4 2025

2024

2025

2026

GDP (%q/q/y/y)

0.1(1.0)

0.0(1.3)

0.4(1.0)

0.5(1.0)

0.6(1.5)

0.5(2.0)

0.8

1.4

1.6

CPI Inflation (%)

2.6 (Nov)

2.5

2.6

2.4

2.6

2.2

2.5

2.5

1.7

Unemp Rate (%)

4.3 (Oct)

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.3

Bank Rate* (%)

4.75

4.75

4.50

4.25

4.00

3.75

4.75

3.75

3.50

QE Stock* (£bn)

655

655

620

590

570

555

655

555

515

10-yr Gilt* (%)

4.59

4.60

4.45

4.30

4.15

4.00

4.60

4.00

3.75

$/£*

1.25

1.25

1.24

1.23

1.21

1.20

1.25

1.20

1.20

€/£*

1.20

1.21

1.21

1.21

1.20

1.20

1.21

1.20

1.20

Sources: Capital Economics, LSEG Data & Analytics. * End period.

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