UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: It’s no longer all about services CPI inflation We’ve become more convinced that the new US tariff regime will reduce inflation in the UK, not least because there are some early signs that goods originally destined for the US are being “dumped” in... 17th April 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Risks tilting towards weaker GDP and faster falls in inflation The extraordinary tariff chaos over the past week and associated fallout in the financial markets have increased the chances that the damage to the UK from the US trade war will be larger and that... 11th April 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Trump’s tariffs not a game changer for the UK It’s clear the markets have concluded that Trump’s tariffs have increased the downside risks to activity that the Bank of England is worried about. But the uncertain influence of tariffs on CPI... 4th April 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Fiscal risks much bigger than tariff risks While the possibility of more US tariffs on UK exports will dominate next week, the bigger risk over the next six months or so comes from the unfinished fiscal business after the Chancellor’s fiscal... 28th March 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Tighter monetary and fiscal policy for longer With the Bank of England tilting towards a slower pace of interest rate cuts and the Chancellor shifting towards tighter fiscal policy, the risks are tilted towards monetary and fiscal policy exerting... 21st March 2025 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Public sector productivity, the BoE and tariffs (again) The slump in overall productivity last year (and the ongoing weakness in public sector productivity) suggests that at least some of the weakness in activity is probably due to lower supply as well as... 14th March 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Defence spending, tariffs and interest rate cuts Germany’s ability to announce a larger increase in defence spending and fund it by additional borrowing rather than spending cuts elsewhere shines yet another light on the UK’s tight fiscal position... 7th March 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Seven points on the UK-US trade deal The "economic" trade deal that Starmer and Trump talked about at the White House this week may mean the UK avoids any new tariffs on its exports to the US. But since we didn't think such tariffs would... 28th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: Spring Fiscal Forecast reaction – Macro and market implications of Reeves’ statement 1743001200 Our senior economists hosted this special online briefing shortly after Rachel Reeves delivered her Spring Forecast, to answer client questions about the macro a
Event UK Drop-In: Spring Fiscal Forecast preview – More tax or less spend? 1741791600 A combination of weaker UK growth, higher yields and more defence spending make for a difficult Spring Fiscal Forecast for Rachel Reeves.
Event Drop-In: Can the UK housing market continue to shrug off the weak economy? 1741186800 The strength of the recovery in housing activity and prices in the second half of last year caught many off guard.
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Rebound in inflation could spell trouble for the BoE With households particularly sensitive to rising food and energy prices, we're becoming more worried that the Bank of England can't ignore the big increase in food inflation in January and the coming... 21st February 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Trump’s tariffs tirade becomes more troubling for the UK We still believe that tariffs are unlikely to reduce UK GDP by as much as some fear and that the UK is much less exposed than a lot of other economies. But the growing possibility of the UK facing... 14th February 2025 · 11 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Doubting the Bank’s higher inflation forecast We doubt inflation will rise as far as the Bank of England’s new forecast suggests. The Bank's dovish tilt when it cut interest rates this week suggests it isn't putting too much weight on its own... 7th February 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Chancellor won’t “kickstart” growth, but LT outlook rosy While we doubt the Chancellor’s plans to “kickstart economic growth” will lift the economy out of its recent malaise in the coming quarters, at the margin her strategy of growing the supply side of... 31st January 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: New year, same dilemma for the BoE The data released this week showing a mix of weaker economic activity but rising price pressures will do little to ease the Bank of England's policy dilemma. We suspect that the continued bad news on... 24th January 2025 · 4 mins read
