Revising down our UK GDP forecasts to below the consensus

Higher taxes for businesses, a lingering drag from the previous interest rate hikes and softer overseas demand explain why we have revised down our UK GDP growth forecasts, from 1.3% to 0.7% for 2025 and from 1.6% to 1.5% for 2026. This means our forecasts have shifted from being a bit stronger than those of the consensus and the Bank of England to a bit weaker.

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